世界贸易网随时间的稳定性-灭绝分析
Stability of the World Trade Web over Time - An Extinction Analysis
摘要：
世界贸易网（WTW）是一个加权网络，其节点对应于具有边权重的国家，边权重反映了国家之间的进口和/或出口价值。在本文中，我们介绍了这个宏观经济系统的灭绝分析的概念，经常使用的技术在生态系统的分析，为了调查这个网络的鲁棒性。特别是，我们将WTW的一套原则性的在硅片“敲除实验”，类似于那些进行调查的食物网，但适当地适应这个宏观经济网络。广泛地说，我们的实验表明，随着时间的推移，WTW移动到一个“强大而脆弱”的配置，它是强大的随机故障，但脆弱的有针对性的攻击。这种稳定性的变化与网络的连通性（边缘密度）高度相关。此外，有证据表明，在1960年代和1970年代，网络的结构发生了急剧变化，在恢复下降趋势之前，大多数鲁棒性措施都迅速增加。我们在第二次世界大战后走向全球化的背景下解释这些结果。全球化与稳健性的急剧增加相吻合，但也与这些措施的增加相吻合（例如，连接和贸易不平衡），这与稳健性下降相关。在全球化政策开始之后，但在负面影响严重之前，稳健性达到顶峰。这些分析依赖于一个简单的动态模型，该模型在网络扰动时重新平衡贸易流，其中最引人注目的是节点删除。更微妙和纹理形式的扰动导致节点的重要性以及脆弱性的其他措施的定义。我们预计，这样的实验和措施可以发挥重要作用，在评估经济系统的稳定性。
英文摘要：
The World Trade Web (WTW) is a weighted network whose nodes correspond to countries with edge weights reflecting the value of imports and/or exports between countries. In this paper we introduce to this macroeconomic system the notion of extinction analysis, a technique often used in the analysis of ecosystems, for the purposes of investigating the robustness of this network. In particular, we subject the WTW to a principled set of in silico "knockout experiments," akin to those carried out in the investigation of food webs, but suitably adapted to this macroeconomic network. Broadly, our experiments show that over time the WTW moves to a "robust yet fragile" configuration where it is robust to random failures but fragile under targeted attack. This change in stability is highly correlated with the connectance (edge density) of the network. Moreover, there is evidence of a sharp change in the structure of the network in the 1960s and 1970s, where most measures of robustness rapidly increase before resuming a declining trend. We interpret these results in the context in the post-World War II move towards globalization. Globalization coincides with the sharp increase in robustness but also with a rise in those measures (e.g., connectance and trade imbalances) which correlate with decreases in robustness. The peak of robustness is reached after the onset of globalization policy but before the negative impacts are substantial. These analyses depend on a simple model of dynamics that rebalances the trade flow upon network perturbation, the most dramatic of which is node deletion. More subtle and textured forms of perturbation lead to the definition of other measures of node importance as well as vulnerability. We anticipate that experiments and measures like these can play an important role in the evaluation of the stability of economic systems.
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