Phillip A. Reed
This is a period study of the bright interacting southern eclipsing binary star R Arae. New photometric data are combined with archival data to determine R Ara's average mass transfer rate over the past 116 years through the analysis of the resulting ephemeris curve. An updated ephemeris is given.
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The planetary nebula (PN) called the Stingray (PN G331.3$-$12.1) suddenly turned on in the 1980s, and its central star (V839 Ara) started a fast evolution with large amplitudes in magnitude, surface temperature, and surface gravity, perhaps as part of a late thermal pulse causing a loop in the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. With these fast changes, we have taken images with the Hubble Space Telescope in 2016. We do not see the massive high-velocity mass loss of the 1980s, either close in to the central star, or as clumps or changes in the nebula far from the star, or as localized or general…
We investigated the Korean records of naked-eye sunspot observations and found an implication of periodicity of about 200-year. Adding the Chinese records we showed that the historical naked-eye sunspot observations have the similar periodicity. Recent some works showed that there would be no intrinsic periodicities except 11-year cycle. We adopt the new approach called samplogram to test sampling stability of cycles in terms of power spectra and difference series and show that the Suess/de Vries cycle of about 207-year is a deterministic cycle of the stochastic solar activity. Also we show th…
Single-year spikes in radiocarbon production are caused by intense bursts of radiation from space. Supernovae emit both high-energy particle and electromagnetic radiation, but it is the latter that is most likely to strike the atmosphere all at once and cause a surge in 14C production. In the 1990s, it was claimed that the supernova in 1006 CE produced exactly this effect. With the 14C spikes in the years 775 and 994 CE now attributed to extreme solar events, attention has returned to the question of whether historical supernovae are indeed detectable using annual 14C measurements. Here, we co…
Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar influence on Earth requires much longer records. The aim of this work is to provide the most up-to-date physics-based reconstruction of the solar total and spectral irradiance (TSI/SSI) over the last nine millennia. The concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural archives have been converted to decadally averaged sunspot numbers through a chain of p…
A nine-millennia reconstruction of decadal sunspot numbers derived from 10Be and 14C terrestrial archives for 6755 BC to 1885 AD has been extended to the present using several other messengers (Observed Sunspot Number, Group Number, range of the diurnal variation of the geomagnetic field, and the InterDiurnal Variation of the geomagnetic Ring Current) and scaled to the modern SILSO Version 2 sunspot number. We find that there has been no secular up tick of activity the last three hundred years and that recent activity has not been out of the ordinary. There is a sharp 87.6-year peak in the pow…
The historical record of sunspot areas is a valuable and widely used proxy of solar activity and variability. The Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) regularly measured this and other parameters between 1874 and 1976. After that time records from a number of different observatories are available. These, however, show systematic differences and often have significants gaps. Our goal is to obtain a uniform and complete sunspot area time series by combining different data sets. A homogeneus composite of sunspot areas is essential for different applications in solar physics, among others for irradia…
The number of spots on the surface of the Sun is one of the best tracers of solar variability we have. The sunspot number is not only known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycles, but also to show variability on longer time scales. It is, however, not only the sunspot number that changes in connection with solar variability. The location of the spots on the solar surface is also known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. This has traditionally been visualised in the so-called butterfly diagram, but this is only well constrained from the beginning of the 19th century. This…
Solar Cycle 19 was probably the greatest solar cycle over the last four centuries and significantly disrupted the solar-terrestrial environments with a number of solar eruptions and resultant geomagnetic storms. At its peak, the International Geophysical Year (IGY: 1957 -- 1958) was organised by international collaborations and benefitted scientific developments, capturing multiple unique extreme space weather events including the third and fourth greatest geomagnetic storms in the space age. In this article, we review and analyse original records of Japanese auroral observations around the IG…
The eclipses in binary stars give precise information of orbital period changes. Goodricke discovered the 2.867 days period in the eclipses of Algol in the year 1783. The irregular orbital period changes of this longest known eclipsing binary continue to puzzle astronomers. The mass transfer between the two members of this binary should cause a long-term increase of the orbital period, but observations over two centuries have not confirmed this effect. Here, we present evidence indicating that the period of Algol was 2.850 days three millenia ago. For religious reasons, the ancient Egyptians h…
The solar cycle periodically reshapes the magnetic structure and radiative output of the Sun and determines its impact on the heliosphere roughly every 11 years. Besides this main periodicity, it shows century-long variations (including periods of abnormally low solar activity called grand minima). The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) has generated significant interest as the archetype of a grand minimum in magnetic activity for the Sun and other stars, suggesting a potential link between the Sun and changes in terrestrial climate. Recent reanalyses of sunspot observations have yielded a conflicted…
We use archival daily spot coverage measurements from Howard et al. (1984) to study the rotational modulation of the Sun as though it were a distant star. A quasi-periodic Gaussian process measures the solar rotation period $P_\mathrm{rot} = 26.3 \pm 0.1$ days, and activity cycle period $P_\mathrm{cyc} = 10.7 \pm 0.3$ years. We attempt to search for evidence of differential rotation in variations of the apparent rotation period throughout the activity cycle and do not detect a clear signal of differential rotation, consistent with the null results of the hare-and-hounds exercise of Aigrain et …
Massive stars, which terminate their evolution as core collapse supernovae, are theoretically predicted to eject more than 1E-5 solar masses of the radioisotope 60Fe. If such an event occurs sufficiently close to our solar system, traces of the supernova debris could be deposited on Earth. Herein, we report a time resolved 60Fe signal residing, at least partially, in a biogenic reservoir. Using accelerator mass spectrometry, this signal was found through the direct detection of live 60Fe atoms contained within secondary iron oxides, among which are magnetofossils, the fossilized chains of magn…
Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10-11, 20-21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively and in several planetary and solar records. Thus, the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely, there exists a modulation of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, have the potenti…
Gil-Alana et al. (Physica A: 396, 42-50, 2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record appears to be characterized by a singularity or pole in the spectral density function at the zero frequency. Consequently, they claimed that the two records are characterized by substantially different statistical fractional models and rejected the hypothesis that sun influences significantly global temperatures. I show that: (1) the "singularity" or "pole" in …
The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We…
Is climate variability the result of frequency modulation by the solar cycle? Evidence from the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Australian climate, Central England Temperature, and reconstructed solar activity and climate records
本文提出南方涛动受太阳周期频率调制模型，其宽平谱与观测相符，并用双傅里叶变换从气候记录中恢复太阳周期，为太阳-气候联系提供新视角。
SDSS J141118.31+481257.6 is an ultracompact white dwarf binary (or AM CVn system) with an orbital period of 46 min. We analyze ~23 ks of X-ray and UV data taken with the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory during its first ever recorded outbursts. The events took place 13 years after the system was discovered. We detected 3 events in our UV data, all with amplitudes of ~7 mags with respect to quiescence, the largests detected for an AM CVn system so far. The first 2 events correspond to a superoutburst and the third one to another detected outburst. The 3 episodes that we identified occurred in a p…
Sunspot numbers are important tracers of historical solar activity. They are important in the prediction of oncoming solar maximum, in the design of lifetimes of space assets, and in assessing the extent of solar-radiation impact on the space environment. Sunspot numbers were obtained visually from sunspot drawings. The availability of digital images from the US Air Force Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON) prototype telescope concurrent to observer-dependent sunspot numbers recorded at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) has provided a basis for comparing sunspot numbers determi…
The historical Hungarian auroral record extends from 1523 to 1960 and is longer than the sunspot record. Harmonic analysis reveals four major multidecadal secular cycles forming an approximate harmonic set at periods of 42.85, 57.13, 85.7 and 171.4 years. These four frequencies are very close to the four major heliospheric oscillations relative to the center of mass of the solar system caused by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Similar frequencies are found in solar radiation models based on long cosmogenic isotope records (Steinhilber et al. 2012) and in long records of naked-eye sunspot …
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