动态红皇后解释致命叛乱袭击的模式
Dynamic Red Queen explains patterns in fatal insurgent attacks
摘要：
红皇后的概念“它需要你所能做的所有跑步，以保持在同一个地方”已经应用于进化生物学，政治学和经济学。我们发现，一个广义的版本，其中一个自适应的红皇后（如叛乱）零星的边缘领先于蓝王（如军事），解释了致命的叛乱分子对联军在阿富汗和伊拉克的个别省份内的军事攻击的进展曲线。出现了非常规律的数学关系，它为未来第n个致命日的时间提供了预测公式，并为理解叛乱分子如何在不同地区作战提供了一个共同的框架。我们的研究结果与达尔文的选择假说是一致的，该假说倾向于一个能够快速适应的弱物种，并与相关行走的物理学建立了意想不到的概念联系。
英文摘要：
The Red Queen's notion "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place" has been applied within evolutionary biology, politics and economics. We find that a generalized version in which an adaptive Red Queen (e.g. insurgency) sporadically edges ahead of a Blue King (e.g. military), explains the progress curves for fatal insurgent attacks against the coalition military within individual provinces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Remarkably regular mathematical relations emerge which suggest a prediction formula for the timing of the n'th future fatal day, and provide a common framework for understanding how insurgents fight in different regions. Our findings are consistent with a Darwinian selection hypothesis which favors a weak species which can adapt rapidly, and establish an unexpected conceptual connection to the physics of correlated walks.
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