We study the problem of estimating a temporally varying coefficient and varying structure (VCVS) graphical model underlying nonstationary time series data, such as social states of interacting individuals or microarray expression profiles of gene networks, as opposed to i.i.d. data from an invariant model widely considered in current literature of structural estimation. In particular, we consider the scenario in which the model evolves in a piece-wise constant fashion. We propose a procedure that minimizes the so-called TESLA loss (i.e., temporally smoothed L1 regularized regression), which allows jointly estimating the partition boundaries of the VCVS model and the coefficient of the sparse precision matrix on each block of the partition. A highly scalable proximal gradient method is proposed to solve the resultant convex optimization problem; and the conditions for sparsistent estimation and the convergence rate of both the partition boundaries and the network structure are established for the first time for such estimators.
While a substantial literature on structural break change point analysis exists for univariate time series, research on large panel data models has not been as extensive. In this paper, a novel method for estimating panel models with multiple structural changes is proposed. The breaks are allowed to occur at unknown points in time and may affect the multivariate slope parameters individually. Our method adapts Haar wavelets to the structure of the observed variables in order to detect the change points of the parameters consistently. We also develop methods to address endogenous regressors wit…
The estimation of probabilities of network edges from the observed adjacency matrix has important applications to predicting missing links and network denoising. It has usually been addressed by estimating the graphon, a function that determines the matrix of edge probabilities, but this is ill-defined without strong assumptions on the network structure. Here we propose a novel computationally efficient method, based on neighborhood smoothing to estimate the expectation of the adjacency matrix directly, without making the structural assumptions that graphon estimation requires. The neighborhoo…
We propose a dynamic neighborhood aggregation (DNA) procedure guided by (multi-head) attention for representation learning on graphs. In contrast to current graph neural networks which follow a simple neighborhood aggregation scheme, our DNA procedure allows for a selective and node-adaptive aggregation of neighboring embeddings of potentially differing locality. In order to avoid overfitting, we propose to control the channel-wise connections between input and output by making use of grouped linear projections. In a number of transductive node-classification experiments, we demonstrate the ef…
An efficient Wasserstein-distance approach for reconstructing jump-diffusion processes using parameterized neural networks
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University（纽约大学柯朗数学科学研究所）；Department of Computational Medicine, UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校计算医学系）；Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford（牛津大学纳菲尔德医学院）；Department of Mathematics, UCLA（加州大学洛杉矶分校数学系）
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)（麻省理工学院）
Recent deep learning approaches for representation learning on graphs follow a neighborhood aggregation procedure. We analyze some important properties of these models, and propose a strategy to overcome those. In particular, the range of "neighboring" nodes that a node's representation draws from strongly depends on the graph structure, analogous to the spread of a random walk. To adapt to local neighborhood properties and tasks, we explore an architecture -- jumping knowledge (JK) networks -- that flexibly leverages, for each node, different neighborhood ranges to enable better structure-awa…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工学院暨州立大学）；University at Albany（奥尔巴尼大学）；Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute（伦斯勒理工学院）
For node level graph encoding, a recent important state-of-art method is the graph convolutional networks (GCN), which nicely integrate local vertex features and graph topology in the spectral domain. However, current studies suffer from several drawbacks: (1) graph CNNs relies on Chebyshev polynomial approximation which results in oscillatory approximation at jump discontinuities; (2) Increasing the order of Chebyshev polynomial can reduce the oscillations issue, but also incurs unaffordable computational cost; (3) Chebyshev polynomials require degree $Ω$(poly(1/$ε$)) to approximate a jump si…
Several methods of estimating the mutual information of random variables have been developed in recent years. They can prove valuable for novel approaches to learning statistically independent features. In this paper, we use one of these methods, a mutual information neural estimation (MINE) network, to present a proof-of-concept of how a neural network can perform linear ICA. We minimize the mutual information, as estimated by a MINE network, between the output units of a differentiable encoder network. This is done by simple alternate optimization of the two networks. The method is shown to …
KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）；INRIA Grenoble Rhone-Alpes（法国国家信息与自动化研究所格勒诺布尔罗纳-阿尔卑斯分部）；University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory（冷泉港实验室）
We design a self size-estimating feed-forward network (SSFN) using a joint optimization approach for estimation of number of layers, number of nodes and learning of weight matrices. The learning algorithm has a low computational complexity, preferably within few minutes using a laptop. In addition the algorithm has a limited need for human intervention to tune parameters. SSFN grows from a small-size network to a large-size network, guaranteeing a monotonically non-increasing cost with addition of nodes and layers. The learning approach uses judicious a combination of `lossless flow property' …
Aggregate network properties such as cluster cohesion and the number of bridge nodes can be used to glean insights about a network's community structure, spread of influence and the resilience of the network to faults. Efficiently computing network properties when the network is fully observed has received significant attention (Wasserman and Faust 1994; Cook and Holder 2006), however the problem of computing aggregate network properties when there is missing data attributes has received little attention. Computing these properties for networks with missing attributes involves performing infer…
Community detection is a fundamental problem in network analysis with many methods available to estimate communities. Most of these methods assume that the number of communities is known, which is often not the case in practice. We study a simple and very fast method for estimating the number of communities based on the spectral properties of certain graph operators, such as the non-backtracking matrix and the Bethe Hessian matrix. We show that the method performs well under several models and a wide range of parameters, and is guaranteed to be consistent under several asymptotic regimes. We c…
We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning, we are able to efficiently use different data sources that are related to the same underlying causal mechanisms. We compare our algorithms with those in the extant literature using extensive simulation studies based on large-scale voter persuasion experiments and the MNIST database. Our methods can perform an order of magnitude better than existing benchmarks…
Nutanix Technologies India Pvt Ltd（Nutanix 印度私人有限公司）；IBM T J Watson Research Center, USA（美国 IBM T J 沃森研究中心）
India runs the fourth largest railway transport network size carrying over 8 billion passengers per year. However, the travel experience of passengers is frequently marked by delays, i.e., late arrival of trains at stations, causing inconvenience. In a first, we study the systemic delays in train arrivals using n-order Markov frameworks and experiment with two regression based models. Using train running-status data collected for two years, we report on an efficient algorithm for estimating delays at railway stations with near accurate results. This work can help railways to manage their resou…
