一个社会群体竞争的数学模型及其在非宗教信仰增长中的应用
A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation
摘要：
当群体为成员而竞争时，人类社会活动的动态变化可以用简单的数学模型来理解。在这里，我们应用动力系统和扰动理论的技术来分析竞争性社会群体的增长和衰落的理论框架。我们提出了一个新的治疗现代世俗社会的宗教和非宗教部分之间的信徒的竞争，并编制了一个新的国际数据集跟踪宗教非隶属关系的增长。数据表明，我们的一般增长规律的一个特殊情况下，导致明确的预测可能的未来趋势的社会。
英文摘要：
When groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics of human social activity may be understandable with simple mathematical models. Here, we apply techniques from dynamical systems and perturbation theory to analyze a theoretical framework for the growth and decline of competing social groups. We present a new treatment of the competition for adherents between religious and irreligious segments of modern secular societies and compile a new international data set tracking the growth of religious non-affiliation. Data suggest a particular case of our general growth law, leading to clear predictions about possible future trends in society.
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