均衡概念与框架效应
Equilibrium notions and framing effects
摘要:
实验经济学一再证明,纳什均衡对大量博弈做出了不准确的预测。相反,一些替代的理论概念预测的行为与观察到的数据更加一致,量子响应平衡是最突出的例子。然而,在这里,我们表明,这个均衡概念本身,像任何其他概念一样,随着收益的平稳变化,必然受到框架效应的影响:如果同样的经济问题以不同但等效的方式表示,预测的结果将有所不同。因此,我们认为,在实验室实验中成功解释人类行为的工具和方法可能不适合做理论。
英文摘要:
Experimental economics has repeatedly demonstrated that the Nash equilibrium makes inaccurate predictions for a vast set of games. Instead, several alternative theoretical concepts predict behavior that is much more in tune with observed data, with the quantal response equilibrium as the most prominent example. However, here we show that this equilibrium notion itself, like any other concept that varies smoothly with the payoffs, is necessarily subject to framing effects: If the same economic problem is represented in a different but equivalent way, the predicted results will differ. As a consequence, we argue that tools and methods that are successful in explaining human behavior in laboratory experiments may be unsuitable for doing theory.
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