选举中的策略性投票
Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections
摘要：
有多少次选举会以压倒性胜利告终？一对一比赛的概率是多少？分析几个大国的投票结果，观察到了相当反常但无法解释的分布。我们确定策略性投票的驱动因素的异常，并引入一个模型来研究其对多元化选举的影响，其特征在于从民意调查的反馈和社会中的个人之间的成对互动的相对强度。有了这个模型，就有可能解释两个候选人之间的选票两极分化，了解在不同的选举中经常观察到的小幅度的胜利，并分析民意调查在美国，加拿大和巴西选票的影响。此外，该模型再现，定量，在巴西市长选举中获得的选票分布有两个，三个和四个候选人。
英文摘要：
How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
