《美国社区调查》多年估计数趋势的不一致性
Incompatibility of trends in multi-year estimates from the American Community Survey
摘要：
美国社区调查（ACS）为每个“社区”提供了各种人口和经济变量的一年（1y），三年（3y）和五年（5y）多年估计（MYE），尽管人口较少的社区可能无法获得一年和三年。这些调查估计并没有真正衡量相同的数量，因为它们各自涵盖不同的时间跨度。使用一些简单的模型，我们证明，比较不同的期间长度的MYE的结果在虚假的结论趋势运动。提出了一种利用加权平均数的简单方法，以减少在比较不同多年期目标趋势时所固有的偏差。这些加权平均值是非参数的，只需要很短的数据跨度，并且旨在保留与趋势相关的时间序列的多项式特征。的基本方法，它只需要多项式代数，概述和应用到ACS数据。在某些情况下，可比性有所改善，但最终结论必须等待更多的ACS数据。我们得出的结论是，MYE数据在不同时期之间不具有可比性。
英文摘要：
The American Community Survey (ACS) provides one-year (1y), three-year (3y) and five-year (5y) multi-year estimates (MYEs) of various demographic and economic variables for each "community", although the 1y and 3y may not be available for communities with a small population. These survey estimates are not truly measuring the same quantities, since they each cover different time spans. Using some simplistic models, we demonstrate that comparing different period-length MYEs results in spurious conclusions about trend movements. A simple method utilizing weighted averages is presented that reduces the bias inherent in comparing trends of different MYEs. These weighted averages are nonparametric, require only a short span of data, and are designed to preserve polynomial characteristics of the time series that are relevant for trends. The basic method, which only requires polynomial algebra, is outlined and applied to ACS data. In some cases there is an improvement to comparability, although a final verdict must await additional ACS data. We draw the conclusion that MYE data is not comparable across different periods.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
