Arguing about the equilibrium distribution of continuous-time Markov chains can be vital for showing properties about the underlying systems. For example in biological systems, bistability of a chemical reaction network can hint at its function as a biological switch. Unfortunately, the state space of these systems is infinite in most cases, preventing the use of traditional steady state solution techniques. In this paper we develop a new approach to tackle this problem by first retrieving geometric bounds enclosing a major part of the steady state probability mass, followed by a more detailed analysis revealing state-wise bounds.
We introduce a new property of Markov chains, called variance bounding. We prove that, for reversible chains at least, variance bounding is weaker than, but closely related to, geometric ergodicity. Furthermore, variance bounding is equivalent to the existence of usual central limit theorems for all $L^2$ functionals. Also, variance bounding (unlike geometric ergodicity) is preserved under the Peskun order. We close with some applications to Metropolis--Hastings algorithms.
We propose an exact technique to calculate lower bounds of spectral gaps of discrete time reversible Markov chains on finite state sets. Spectral gaps are a common tool for evaluating convergence rates of Markov chains. As an illustration, we successfully use this technique to evaluate the ``absorption time'' of the ``Backgammon model'', a paradigmatic model for glassy dynamics. We also discuss the application of this technique to the ``Contingency table problem'', a notoriously difficult problem from probability theory. The interest of this technique is that it connects spectral gaps, which a…
Consideration is given to the three different analytical methods for the computation of upper bounds for the rate of convergence to the limiting regime of one specific class of (in)homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. This class is particularly suited to describe evolutions of the total number of customers in (in)homogeneous $M/M/S$ queueing systems with possibly state-dependent arrival and service intensities, batch arrivals and services. One of the methods is based on the logarithmic norm of a linear operator function; the other two rely on Lyapunov functions and differential inequalit…
Bounding chains are a technique that offers three benefits to Markov chain practitioners: a theoretical bound on the mixing time of the chain under restricted conditions, experimental bounds on the mixing time of the chain that are provably accurate and construction of perfect sampling algorithms when used in conjunction with protocols such as coupling from the past. Perfect sampling algorithms generate variates exactly from the target distribution without the need to know the mixing time of a Markov chain at all. We present here the basic theory and use of bounding chains for several chains f…
This paper introduces a new algorithm for numerically computing equilibrium (i.e. stationary) distributions for Markov chains and Markov jump processes with either a very large finite state space or a countably infinite state space. The algorithm is based on a ratio representation for equilibrium expectations in which the numerator and denominator correspond to expectations defined over paths that start and end within a given return set $K$. When $K$ is a singleton, this representation is a well-known consequence of regenerative process theory. For computational tractability, we ignore contrib…
We introduce the exit time finite state projection (ETFSP) scheme, a truncation-based method that yields approximations to the exit distribution and occupation measure associated with the time of exit from a domain (i.e., the time of first passage to the complement of the domain) of time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains. We prove that: (i) the computed approximations bound the measures from below; (ii) the total variation distances between the approximations and the measures decrease monotonically as states are added to the truncation; and (iii) the scheme converges, in the sense that…
In a series of recent works, Boyd, Diaconis, and their co-authors have introduced a semidefinite programming approach for computing the fastest mixing Markov chain on a graph of allowed transitions, given a target stationary distribution. In this paper, we show that standard mixing-time analysis techniques--variational characterizations, conductance, canonical paths--can be used to give simple, nontrivial lower and upper bounds on the fastest mixing time. To test the applicability of this idea, we consider several detailed examples including the Glauber dynamics of the Ising model--and get sha…
The Markov, Chebyshev, and Chernoff inequalities are some of the most widely used methods for bounding the tail probabilities of random variables. In all three cases, the bounds are tight in the sense that there exists easy examples where the inequalities become equality. Here we will show that through a simple smoothing using auxiliary randomness, that each of the three bounds can be cut in half. In many common cases, the halving can be achieved without the need for the auxiliary randomness.
We study a class of strongly irreducible, multidimensional, topological Markov shifts, comparing two notions of "symmetric measure": exchangeability and the Gibbs (or conformal) property. We show that equilibrium measures for such shifts (unique and weak Bernoulli in the one dimensional case) exhibit a variety of spectral properties.
This paper is devoted to solving a time-inconsistent risk-sensitive control problem with parameter $\e$ and its limit case ($\e\rightarrow0^+$) for countable-stated Markov decision processes (MDPs for short). Since the cost functional is time-inconsistent, it is impossible to find a global optimal strategy for both cases. Instead, for each case, we will prove the existence of time-inconstant equilibrium strategies which verify the so-called step-optimality. Moreover, we prove the convergence of $\e$-equilibriums and the corresponding value functions as $\e\rightarrow0^+$.
This paper focuses on a class of continuous-time controlled Markov chains with time-inconsistent and distribution-dependent cost functional (in some appropriate sense). A new definition of time-inconsistent distribution-dependent equilibrium in closed-loop sense is given and its existence and uniqueness have been established. Because of the time-inconsistency, it is proved that the equilibrium is locally optimal in an appropriate sense. Moreover, it has been shown that our problem is essentially equivalent to an infinite-player mean-field game with time-inconsistent cost.
Studying the subexponential convergence towards equilibrium of a strong Markov process, we exhibit an intermediate Lyapunov condition equivalent to the control of some moment of a hitting time. This provides a link, similar (although more intricate) to the one existing in the exponential case, between the coupling method and the approach based on the existence of a Lyapunov function for the generator, in the context of the subexponential rates found by Fort-Roberts (2005), Douc-Fort-Guillin (2009) and Hairer (2016).
We estimate the distance in total variation between the law of a finite state Markov process at time t, starting from a given initial measure, and its unique invariant measure. We derive upper bounds for the time to reach the equilibrium. As an example of application we consider a special case of finite state Markov process in random environment: the Metropolis dynamics of the Random Energy Model. We also study the process of the environment as seen from the process.
By proving a local limit theorem for higher-order transitions, we determine the time required for necklace chains to be close to stationarity. Because necklace chains, built by arranging identical smaller chains around a directed cycle, are not reversible, have little symmetry, do not have uniform stationary distributions, and can be nearly periodic, prior general bounds on rates of convergence of Markov chains either do not apply or give poor bounds. Necklace chains can serve as test cases for future techniques for bounding rates of convergence.
A nonnegative coarse Ricci curvature for a Markov chain and the existence of an attractive point implies the concentration of the invariant probability measure around this point. The mass outside balls centered at the attractive point, as a function of the radius, decreases at least as fast as the exponential of a double integral of the coarse Ricci curvature. This is exactly the behaviour of the density of the reversible measure for diffusion processes on the real line.
The paper is concerned with the equilibrium distributions of continuous-time density dependent Markov processes on the integers. These distributions are known typically to be approximately normal, and the approximation error, as measured in Kolmogorov distance, is of the smallest order that is compatible with their having integer support. Here, an approximation in the much stronger total variation norm is established, without any loss in the asymptotic order of accuracy; the approximating distribution is a translated Poisson distribution having the same variance and (almost) the same mean. Our…
We prove that every Markov solution to the three dimensional Navier-Stokes equation with periodic boundary conditions driven by additive Gaussian noise is uniquely ergodic. The convergence to the (unique) invariant measure is exponentially fast. Moreover, we give a well-posedness criterion for the equations in terms of invariant measures. We also analyse the energy balance and identify the term which ensures equality in the balance.
We prove deviation bounds for the random variable $\sum_{i=1}^{n} f_i(Y_i)$ in which $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ is a Markov chain with stationary distribution and state space $[N]$, and $f_i: [N] \rightarrow [-a_i, a_i]$. Our bound improves upon previously known bounds in that the dependence is on $\sqrt{a_1^2+\cdots+a_n^2}$ rather than $\max_{i}\{a_i\}\sqrt{n}.$ We also prove deviation bounds for certain types of sums of vector--valued random variables obtained from a Markov chain in a similar manner. One application includes bounding the expected value of the Schatten $\infty$-norm of a random…
Using elementary methods, we prove that for a countable Markov chain $P$ of ergodic degree $d > 0$ the rate of convergence towards the stationary distribution is subgeometric of order $n^{-d}$, provided the initial distribution satisfies certain conditions of asymptotic decay. An example, modelling a renewal process and providing a markovian approximation scheme in dynamical system theory, is worked out in detail, illustrating the relationships between convergence behaviour, analytic properties of the generating functions associated to transition probabilities and spectral properties of the Ma…
For integer valued random variables, the translated Poisson distributions form a flexible family for approximation in total variation, in much the same way that the normal family is used for approximation in Kolmogorov distance. Using the Stein--Chen method, approximation can often be achieved with error bounds of the same order as those for the CLT. In this paper, an analogous theory, again based on Stein's method, is developed in the multivariate context. The approximating family consists of the equilibrium distributions of a collection of Markov jump processes, whose analogues in one dimens…
We obtain universal estimates on the convergence to equilibrium and the times of coupling for continuous time irreducible reversible finite-state Markov chains, both in the total variation and in the L^2 norms. The estimates in total variation norm are obtained using a novel identity relating the convergence to equilibrium of a reversible Markov chain to the increase in the entropy of its one-dimensional distributions. In addition, we propose a universal way of defining the ultrametric partition structure on the state space of such Markov chains. Finally, for chains reversible with respect to …
We investigate mean field games for players, who are weakly coupled via their empirical measure. To this end we investigate time-dependent pure jump type propagators over a finite space in the framework of non-linear Markov processes. We show that the individual optimal strategy results from a consistent coupling of an optimal control problem with a forward non-autonomous dynamics which leads to the well-known Mckean-Vlasov dynamics in the limit as the number N of players goes to infinity. The case where one player has an individual preference different to the ones of the remaining players is …
In this paper, we derive upper bounds on generalization errors for deep neural networks with Markov datasets. These bounds are developed based on Koltchinskii and Panchenko's approach for bounding the generalization error of combined classifiers with i.i.d. datasets. The development of new symmetrization inequalities in high-dimensional probability for Markov chains is a key element in our extension, where the spectral gap of the infinitesimal generator of the Markov chain plays a key parameter in these inequalities. We also propose a simple method to convert these bounds and other similar one…
This paper develops a new methodology for studying continuous-time Nash equilibrium in a financial market with asymmetrically informed agents. This approach allows us to lift the restriction of risk neutrality imposed on market makers by the current literature. It turns out that, when the market makers are risk averse, the optimal strategies of the agents are solutions of a forward-backward system of partial and stochastic differential equations. In particular, the price set by the market makers solves a nonstandard "quadratic" backward stochastic differential equation. The main result of the …
Mean-field integro-differential equations are studied in an abstract framework, through couplings of the corresponding stochastic processes. In the perturbative regime, the equation is proven to admit a unique equilibrium, toward which the process converges exponentially fast. Similarly, in this case, the associated particle system is proven to converge toward its equilibrium at a rate independent from the number of particles.
We show how to combine Fourier analysis with coupling arguments to bound the mixing times of a variety of Markov chains. The mixing time is the number of steps a Markov chain takes to approach its equilibrium distribution. One application is to a class of Markov chains introduced by Luby, Randall, and Sinclair to generate random tilings of regions by lozenges. For an L X L region we bound the mixing time by O(L^4 log L), which improves on the previous bound of O(L^7), and we show the new bound to be essentially tight. In another application we resolve a few questions raised by Diaconis and Sal…
We investigate mean-field games from the point of view of a large number of indistinguishable players which eventually converges to infinity. The players are weakly coupled via their empirical measure. The dynamics of the states of the individual players is governed by a non-autonomous pure jump type semi group in a Euclidean space, which is not necessarily smoothing. Investigations are conducted in the framework of non-linear Markov processes. We show that the individual optimal strategy results from a consistent coupling of an optimal control problem with a forward non-autonomous dynamics. I…
We extend a technique for lower-bounding the mixing time of card-shuffling Markov chains, and use it to bound the mixing time of the Rudvalis Markov chain, as well as two variants considered by Diaconis and Saloff-Coste. We show that in each case Theta(n^3 log n) shuffles are required for the permutation to randomize, which matches (up to constants) previously known upper bounds. In contrast, for the two variants, the mixing time of an individual card is only Theta(n^2) shuffles.
Revisiting boundary-driven non-equilibrium Markov dynamics in arbitrary potentials via supersymmetric quantum mechanics and explicit large deviations at various levels
Random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov systems are uniformly continuous and contractive are considered. A non-degeneracy and a consistency conditions for such systems, which admit some proper Markov partitions of connected spaces, are introduced, and further sufficient conditions for them are provided. It is shown that every uniformly continuous Markov system associated with a continuous random dynamical system is consistent if it has a dominating Markov chain. A necessary and sufficient…
We consider mean field games with ergodic cost in the framework of a general discrete time controlled Markov processes. The state space of the processes is given by a general $σ$-compact Polish space. Under certain conditions, we show the existence of a mean field game equilibrium. We also study the $N$-person game where the players interacts with each other via their empirical measure. We show that the $N$-person game has Nash equilibrium and as $N$ tends to infinity the equilibria converge to a mean field game solution.
Perfect sampling is a technique that uses coupling arguments to provide a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain in a finite time without ever computing the distribution. This technique is very efficient if all the events in the system have monotonicity property. However, in the general (non-monotone) case, this technique needs to consider the whole state space, which limits its application only to chains with a state space of small cardinality. We propose here a new approach for the general case that only needs to consider two trajectories. Instead of the original chain, we…
Many state of the art methods for the thermodynamic and kinetic characterization of large and complex biomolecular systems by simulation rely on ensemble approaches, where data from large numbers of relatively short trajectories are integrated. In this context, Markov state models (MSMs) are extremely popular because they can be used to compute stationary quantities and long-time kinetics from ensembles of short simulations, provided that these short simulations are in "local equilibrium" within the MSM states. However, in the last over 15 years since the inception of MSMs, it has been controv…
