1939年和1994年之间宇宙射线对地球极地大气中年10 Be产量的新计算与多个格陵兰岛Ice Cores的年10 Be测量的比较--令人不安的缺乏一致性论文#2
A Comparison Of New Calculations Of The Yearly 10Be Production In The Earths Polar Atmosphere By Cosmic Rays With Yearly 10Be Measurements In Multiple Greenland Ice Cores Between 1939 And 1994 - A Troubling Lack Of Concordance Paper #2
摘要：
我们比较了过去50-70年来地球极地大气中宇宙射线的10 Be年生产率和格陵兰岛两个独立冰芯的10 Be测量值。这些冰芯提供了这段时间内每年10 Be浓度和10 Be通量水平的测量结果。冰芯年度数据与生产数据的分散度大于正在测量的平均太阳11年生产变化。在冰芯数据与10 Be生产量的所有比较中，包括10 Be浓度、10 Be通量以及两个独立冰芯测量值的比较中，10 Be年生产量与冰芯10 Be测量值之间的互相关系数均<0.4。事实上，两个冰芯测量值之间的互相关（应该是测量同一个源）是所有测量值中最低的，只有~0.2。相关系数的这些值都指示“差”相关性。在互相关分析中使用的10 Be生产和10 Be测量之间的最佳拟合线的回归线斜率都在0.4-0.6的范围内。这是一个特殊的问题，历史预测太阳活动的基础上冰芯测量假设1：1的对应关系。我们对10 Be预测值和冰芯测量值之间的对应关系进行了其他测试，得出了同样的结论，即对冰芯测量值的其他影响，与生产变化本身一样大或更大，正在发生。这些影响可能是基于气候或工具。我们建议新的冰芯测量，可能有助于更清楚地定义这些影响是什么，如果可能的话，以纠正他们。
英文摘要：
We have compared the yearly production rates of 10Be by cosmic rays in the Earths polar atmosphere over the last 50-70 years with 10Be measurements from two separate ice cores in Greenland. These ice cores provide measurements of the annual 10Be concentration and 10Be flux levels during this time. The scatter in the ice core yearly data vs. the production data is larger than the average solar 11 year production variations that are being measured. The cross correlation coefficients between the yearly 10Be production and the ice core 10Be measurements for this time period are <0.4 in all comparisons between ice core data and 10Be production, including 10Be concentrations, 10Be fluxes and in comparing the two separate ice core measurements. In fact, the cross correlation between the two ice core measurements, which should be measuring the same source, is the lowest of all, only ~0.2. These values for the correlation coefficient are all indicative of a "poor" correlation. The regression line slopes for the best fit lines between the 10Be production and the 10Be measurements used in the cross correlation analysis are all in the range 0.4-0.6. This is a particular problem for historical projections of solar activity based on ice core measurements which assume a 1:1 correspondence. We have made other tests of the correspondence between the 10Be predictions and the ice core measurements which lead to the same conclusion, namely that other influences on the ice core measurements, as large as or larger than the production changes themselves, are occurring. These influences could be climatic or instrumentally based. We suggest new ice core measurements that might help in defining more clearly what these influences are and-if possible-to correct for them.
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