1939-2005年期间，宇宙射线在地球极地大气中产生10 Be的新计算与极地ice cores中10 Be浓度测量结果的比较-令人不安的缺乏一致性论文#1
A comparison of new calculations of 10be production in the earths polar atmosphere by cosmic rays with 10be concentration measurements in polar ice cores between 1939-2005 - a troubling lack of concordance paper #1
摘要：
利用11年太阳对银河系宇宙射线调制效应的直接测量和宇宙射线能谱的航天器测量，计算了1939年以来银河系和太阳宇宙射线在地球大气中10 Be的年平均产生量。在过去的六个11年周期中，这些产量变化的平均幅度为36%。这些预测进行了比较，在同一时期的北极和南半球冰芯中的10 Be浓度的测量。我们发现预测和测量的年平均数据集之间存在较大的分散性，并且互相关性较低，约为0.30。此外，10 Be产量变化和10 Be浓度变化之间的归一化回归线斜率仅为0.4-0.6;远小于这些数量之间简单比例关系所预期的1.0值，这通常用于10 Be浓度和太阳活动之间关系的历史预测。1939-1985年期间格陵兰Dye-3冰芯数据中10 Be浓度水平的年平均值分布包含一个高浓度年平均值的“尖峰”，这在生产计算中是看不到的。这些和其他特征表明，影响地球大气中10 Be产生的银河宇宙射线强度变化并不是10 Be浓度变化的唯一来源，并证实了其他影响的重要性，例如当地和区域气候影响，这些影响可能与10 Be产生变化的幅度相同。
英文摘要：
Using new calculations of 10Be production in the Earths atmosphere which are based on direct measurements of the 11-year solar modulation effects on galactic cosmic rays and spacecraft measurements of the cosmic ray energy spectrum, we have calculated the yearly average production of 10Be in the Earths atmosphere by galactic and solar cosmic rays since 1939. During the last six 11-year cycles the average amplitude of these production changes is 36%. These predictions are compared with measurements of 10Be concentration in polar ice cores in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere over the same time period. We find a large scatter between the predicted and measured yearly average data sets and a low cross correlation ~0.30. Also the normalized regression line slope between 10Be production changes and 10Be concentration changes is found to be only 0.4-0.6; much less than the value of 1.0 expected for a simple proportionality between these quantities, as is typically used for historical projections of the relationship between 10Be concentration and solar activity. The distribution of yearly averages in the 10Be concentration level in the data from the Dye-3 ice core in Greenland for the time period 1939-1985, contains a "spike" of high concentration one year averages which is not seen in the production calculations. These and other features suggest that galactic cosmic ray intensity changes which affect the production of 10Be in the Earths atmosphere are not the sole source of the 10Be concentration changes and confirm the importance of other effects, for example local and regional climatic effects, which could be of the same magnitude as the 10Be production changes.
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