投票统计中的空间相关性：决策的扩散场模型
Spatial correlations in vote statistics: a diffusive field model for decision-making
摘要：
我们研究了自1992年以来法国选举的投票率和结果的统计数据。我们发现，随着时间的推移，各城镇的投票率分布惊人地稳定。投票率的空间相关性，或获胜的选票的分数，被发现衰减与城镇之间的距离。基于这些经验的观察和类比与二维随机扩散方程，我们提出，个人的决定可以合理化的一个潜在的“文化”领域，局部偏见的决定，一个特定的地区的人口，在一个特质，城镇依赖的领域，与短程相关性。使用对称性的考虑和一组合理的假设，我们认为，这个文化场服从一个随机扩散方程。
英文摘要：
We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the fraction of winning votes, is found to decay logarithmically with the distance between towns. Based on these empirical observations and on the analogy with a two-dimensional random diffusion equation, we propose that individual decisions can be rationalised in terms of an underlying "cultural" field, that locally biases the decision of the population of a given region, on top of an idiosyncratic, town-dependent field, with short range correlations. Using symmetry considerations and a set of plausible assumptions, we suggest that this cultural field obeys a random diffusion equation.
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