过去的表现，同行评审和项目选择：社会和行为科学的案例研究
Past performance, peer review, and project selection: A case study in the social and behavioral sciences
摘要：
过去的表现是否会影响赠款申请的成功？在这项研究中，我们测试荷兰经济和社会科学研究理事会的赠款分配决定是否与申请人在出版物和引用方面的过去表现相关，并与理事会组织的同行评审过程的结果相关。我们表明，理事会是成功的，在区分补助金申请人与高于平均水平的表现，从那些低于平均水平的表现，但在前一组没有相关性，可以发现过去的表现和获得补助金。当比较被拒绝资助的最佳研究人员与获得资助的研究人员时，被拒绝的研究人员的表现明显优于获得资助的研究人员。此外，被拒绝的最佳提案在同行审查过程中的平均得分与被接受的提案一样高。最后，我们发现，所研究的理事会在甄选过程中成功地纠正了性别影响。我们解释了为什么这些发现可能比这种情况下更普遍。然而，如果研究委员会不能选择“最好的”研究人员，也许他们应该重新考虑他们的使命。在最后一节与政策的影响，我们讨论了研究委员会在科学系统的变化，创新和质量控制方面的作用。
英文摘要：
Does past performance influence success in grant applications? In this study we test whether the grant allocation decisions of the Netherlands Research Council for the Economic and Social Sciences correlate with the past performances of the applicants in terms of publications and citations, and with the results of the peer review process organized by the Council. We show that the Council is successful in distinguishing grant applicants with above-average performance from those with below-average performance, but within the former group no correlation could be found between past performance and receiving a grant. When comparing the best performing researchers who were denied funding with the group of researchers who received it, the rejected researchers significantly outperformed the funded ones. Furthermore, the best rejected proposals score on average as high on the outcomes of the peer review process as the accepted proposals. Finally, we found that the Council under study successfully corrected for gender effects during the selection process. We explain why these findings may be more general than for this case only. However, if research councils are not able to select the 'best' researchers, perhaps they should reconsider their mission. In a final section with policy implications, we discuss the role of research councils at the level of the science system in terms of variation, innovation, and quality control.
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