熊彼特经济动力学作为可量化的最小进化模型
Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable minimum model of evolution
摘要：
我们提出了一个简单的熊彼特经济动力学的定量模型。新的商品和服务是通过现有商品的组合而内生产生的。新产品一进入市场，就可能与现有产品竞争，换句话说，新产品可能对现有产品产生破坏性影响。由于这种竞争机制，现有的商品可能会被赶出市场-往往造成一连串的次级缺陷（熊彼特式的破坏风暴）。这一模式导致了一种普遍的动态，其特点是经济相对稳定的阶段之后是市场大规模重组的阶段，这可以被解释为熊彼特商业“周期”。模型时间序列的产品多样性和生产力再现经济时间序列的几个程式化的事实，如GDP或企业倒闭，包括非高斯厚尾分布，波动性聚类等的模型是在一个开放的，非平衡的设置，可以理解为一个自组织的关键系统。它的多样性动力学可以通过主动生产网络的时变拓扑来理解。
英文摘要：
We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism existing goods may be driven out from the market - often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to a generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets - which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business `cycles'. Model timeseries of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics timeseries on long timescales such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions, volatility clustering etc. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.
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