描述传染病动力学的随机格子气模型
Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of an epidemic
摘要:
我们研究了一个描述流行病在由三类个体组成的群体中传播动力学开始的随机过程:易感者(S),感染者(I)和康复者(R)。随机过程由局部规则定义,并涉及以下循环过程:S $\to$ I $\to$ R $\to$ S(SIRS)。作为SIRS过程的一个特例,研究了开过程S $\to$ I $\to$ R(SIR).流行病的过程进行了分析,在不同层次的描述:随机格子气模型和出生和死亡过程。通过蒙特卡罗模拟和动力学平均场近似,我们证明了SIRS随机格子气模型存在一条临界点线,该临界点线将两个相分离:一个是充满S个体的吸收相,另一个是S、I和R个体共存的活跃相,这可能存在也可能不存在种群循环。临界线,这对应于传染病传播的发病,是属于有向渗流普适类。通过考虑生灭过程,我们分析了噪声在稳定振荡中的作用。
英文摘要:
We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed by individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S$\to$I$\to$R$\to$S (SIRS). The open process S$\to$I$\to$R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyse the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations.
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