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arXiv 0908.0547stat.ME
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多元扩散的非线性主成分和长期含义

Nonlinear Principal Components and Long-run Implications of Multivariate Diffusions

Xioahong Chen, Lars Peter Hansen, Jose Scheinkman

摘要:

研究了一种非线性主成分的提取方法。这些NPC最大限度地变化受到平滑和正交约束,但我们允许一般类的约束和多元概率密度,包括密度没有紧支持,甚至密度代数尾。我们提供了这些NPC存在的原始充分条件。通过利用连续时间,可逆马尔可夫扩散过程的理论,我们给出了不同的解释,这些NPC和光滑约束。当扩散矩阵用于强制平滑时,NPC最大化相对于受正交约束的总体变化的长期变化。此外,NPC表现为标量自回归与异方差创新,这支持半参数识别和估计的多变量可逆扩散过程和测试的过度识别的限制,这样一个过程中隐含的低频数据。我们还探讨了固定的,可能是不可逆的扩散过程的影响。最后,我们提出了一种筛分方法来估计离散采样数据的NPC。

英文摘要:

We investigate a method for extracting nonlinear principal components (NPCs). These NPCs maximize variation subject to smoothness and orthogonality constraints; but we allow for a general class of constraints and multivariate probability densities, including densities without compact support and even densities with algebraic tails. We provide primitive sufficient conditions for the existence of these NPCs. By exploiting the theory of continuous-time, reversible Markov diffusion processes, we give a different interpretation of these NPCs and the smoothness constraints. When the diffusion matrix is used to enforce smoothness, the NPCs maximize long-run variation relative to the overall variation subject to orthogonality constraints. Moreover, the NPCs behave as scalar autoregressions with heteroskedastic innovations; this supports semiparametric identification and estimation of a multivariate reversible diffusion process and tests of the overidentifying restrictions implied by such a process from low frequency data. We also explore implications for stationary, possibly non-reversible diffusion processes. Finally, we suggest a sieve method to estimate the NPCs from discretely-sampled data.

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