Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of Sunspot Numbers and River Flow Fluctuations
S. Hajian, M. Sadegh Movahed
备注：
9 pages, 8 figures and 1 table. V2: Added comments, references, figures and major corrections. Accepted for publication in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
We use the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) to investigate the influence of sun activity represented by sunspot numbers on one of the climate indicators, specifically rivers, represented by river flow fluctuation for Daugava, Holston, Nolichucky and French Broad rivers. The Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DXA) shows that there exist some crossovers in the cross-correlation fluctuation function versus time scale of the river flow and sunspot series. One of these crossovers corresponds to the well-known cycle of solar activity demonstrating a universal property of the mentioned rivers. The scaling exponent given by DCCA for original series at intermediate time scale, $(12-24)\leq s\leq 130$ months, is $λ= 1.17\pm0.04$ which is almost similar for all underlying rivers at $1σ$confidence interval showing the second universal behavior of river runoffs. To remove the sinusoidal trends embedded in data sets, we apply the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method. Our results show that there exists a long-range cross-correlation between the sunspot numbers and the underlying streamflow records. The magnitude of the scaling exponent and the corresponding cross-correlation exponent are $λ\in (0.76, 0.85)$ and $γ_{\times}\in(0.30, 0.48)$, respectively. Different values for scaling and cross-correlation exponents may be related to local and external factors such as topography, drainage network morphology, human activity and so on. Multifractal cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that all underlying fluctuations have almost weak multifractal nature which is also a universal property for data series. In addition the empirical relation between scaling exponent derived by DCCA and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), $ λ\approx(h_{\rm sun} + h_{\rm river})/2$ is confirmed.
We develop a method for the multifractal characterization of nonstationary time series, which is based on a generalization of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). We relate our multifractal DFA method to the standard partition function-based multifractal formalism, and prove that both approaches are equivalent for stationary signals with compact support. By analyzing several examples we show that the new method can reliably determine the multifractal scaling behavior of time series. By comparing the multifractal DFA results for original series to those for shuffled series we can distingui…
Multifractal structure of global monthly mean temperature anomaly time series over the period of 1850-2012 are studied in terms of the multifractal detrended moving average (MFDMA) analysis. We try to address the possible source(s) and the nature of multifractality in the time series data by comparing the results derived from the actual series with those from a set of shuffled and surrogate series. It is seen that the MFDMA method predicts a multifractal structure of the temperature anomaly records that is more or less similar to what was obtained from the multifractal detrended analysis for t…
The miltifractal properties and scaling behaviour of the exchange rate variations of the Iranian rial against the US dollar from a daily perspective is numerically investigated. For this purpose the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used. Through multifractal analysis, the scaling exponents, generalized Hurst exponents, generalized fractal dimensions and singularity spectrum are derived. Moreover, contribution of two major sources of multifractality, that is, fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations are studied.
One-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (1D DFA) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (1D MF-DFA) are widely used in the scaling analysis of fractal and multifractal time series because of being accurate and easy to implement. In this paper we generalize the one-dimensional DFA and MF-DFA to higher-dimensional versions. The generalization works well when tested with synthetic surfaces including fractional Brownian surfaces and multifractal surfaces. The two-dimensional MF-DFA is also adopted to analyze two images from nature and experiment and nice scaling laws are unraveled.
It is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences that two variables, recorded temporally or spatially in a complex system, are cross-correlated and possess multifractal features. We propose a new method called multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) to investigate the multifractal behaviors in the power-law cross-correlations between two records in one or higher dimensions. The method is validated with cross-correlated 1D and 2D binomial measures and multifractal random walks. Application to two financial time series is also illustrated.
The performance of the multifractal detrended analysis on short time series is evaluated for synthetic samples of several mono- and multifractal models. The reconstruction of the generalized Hurst exponents is used to determine the range of applicability of the method and the precision of its results as a function of the decreasing length of the series. As an application the series of the daily exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro is studied.
We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), to See query 1 study sunspot number fluctuations. The result of the MF-DFA shows that there are three crossover timescales in the fluctuation function. We discuss how the existence of the crossover timescales is related to a sinusoidal trend. Using Fourier detrended fluctuation analysis, the sinusoidal trend is eliminated. The Hurst exponent of the time series without the sinusoidal trend is $0.12\pm 0.01$. Also we find that these fluctuations have multifractal nature. Comparing the MF-DFA results for the remaining data set to those …
The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for the period: 1993-July 2013. Various multifractal variables, such as the generalized Hurst exponent, the multifractal exponent and the singularity spectrum, are calculated and the results are fitted to the generalized binomial multifractal (GBM) series that consists of only two parameters. Special emphasis is given to identify the possible source(s) of multifr…
The refractive index fluctuations in the connective tissue layer (stroma) of human cervical tissues having different grades of precancers (dysplasia) was quantified using a wavelet-based multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis model. The results show clear signature of multi-scale self-similarity in the index fluctuations of the tissues. Importantly, the refractive index fluctuations were found to be more anti-correlated at higher grades of precancers. Moreover, the strength of multifractality was also observed to be considerably weaker in higher grades of precancers. These results were fu…
We study the multifractal temporal scaling properties of river discharge and precipitation records. We compare the results for the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method with the results for the wavelet transform modulus maxima technique and obtain agreement within the error margins. In contrast to previous studies, we find non-universal behaviour: On long time scales, above a crossover time scale of several months, the runoff records are described by fluctuation exponents varying from river to river in a wide range. Similar variations are observed for the precipitation records whi…
We study temporal correlations and multifractal properties of long river discharge records from 41 hydrological stations around the globe. To detect long-term correlations and multifractal behaviour in the presence of trends, we apply several recently developed methods [detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), wavelet analysis, and multifractal DFA] that can systematically detect and overcome nonstationarities in the data at all time scales. We find that above some crossover time that usually is several weeks, the daily runoffs are long-term correlated, being characterized by a correlation functi…
Multifractal time series analysis is a approach that shows the possible complexity of the system. Nowadays, one of the most popular and the best methods for determining multifractal characteristics is Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). However, it has some drawback. One of its core elements is detrending of the series. In the classical MFDFA a trend is estimated by fitting a polynomial of degree $m$ where $m=const$. We propose that the degree $m$ of a polynomial was not constant ($m\neq const$) and its selection was ruled by an established criterion. Taking into account the a…
The robustness of two widespread multifractal analysis methods, one based on detrended fluctuation analysis and one on wavelet leaders, is discussed in the context of time-series containing non-uniform structures with only isolated singularities. Signals generated by simulated and experimentally-realized chaos generators, together with synthetic data addressing particular aspects, are taken into consideration. The results reveal essential limitations affecting the ability of both methods to correctly infer the non-multifractal nature of signals devoid of a cascade-like hierarchy of singulariti…
Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) has become a central method to characterise the variability and uncertainty in empiric time series. Extracting the fluctuations on different temporal scales allows quantifying the strength and correlations in the underlying stochastic properties, their scaling behaviour, as well as the level of fractality. Several extensions to the fundamental method have been developed over the years, vastly enhancing the applicability of MFDFA, e.g. empirical mode decomposition for the study of long-range correlations and persistence. In this article we int…
This study investigates the multifractality of streamflow data of 192 stations located in 13 river basins in India using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA). The streamflow datasets of different river basins displayed multifractality and long term persistence with a mean exponent of 0.585. The streamflow records of Krishna basin displayed least persistence and that of Godavari basin displayed strongest multifractality and complexity. Subsequently, the streamflow-sediment links of five major river basins are evaluated using the novel Multifractal Cross Correlation Analysis …
When common factors strongly influence two cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural and social systems, the results will be biased if we use multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) without considering these common factors. Based on multifractal temporally weighted detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-TWXDFA) proposed by our group and multifractal partial cross-correlation analysis (MF-DPXA) proposed by Qian et al., we propose a new method---multifractal temporally weighted detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (MF-TWDPCCA) to quantify intrinsic pow…
We perform a comparative study of applicability of the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) and the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) method in proper detecting of mono- and multifractal character of data. We quantify the performance of both methods by using different sorts of artificial signals generated according to a few well-known exactly soluble mathematical models: monofractal fractional Brownian motion, bifractal Levy flights, and different sorts of multifractal binomial cascades. Our results show that in majority of situations in which one does not know a priori th…
We propose a novel algorithm - Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFCCA) - that constitutes a consistent extension of the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) and is able to properly identify and quantify subtle characteristics of multifractal cross-correlations between two time series. Our motivation for introducing this algorithm is that the already existing methods like MF-DXA have at best serious limitations for most of the signals describing complex natural processes and often indicate multifractal cross-correlations when there are none. The principal component of the present…
There is growing evidence that cognitive processes may have fractal structures as a signature of complexity. It is an an ongoing topic of research to study the class of complexity and how it may differ as a function of cognitive variables. Here, we explore the eye movement trajectories generated during reading different Persian texts. Features of eye movement trajectories were recorded during reading Persian texts using an eye tracker. We show that fixation durations, as the main components of eye movements reflecting cognitive processing, exhibits multifractal behavior. This indicates that mu…
When common factors strongly influence two power-law cross-correlated time series recorded in complex natural or social systems, using classic detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) without considering these common factors will bias the results. We use detrended partial cross-correlation analysis (DPXA) to uncover the intrinsic power-law cross-correlations between two simultaneously recorded time series in the presence of nonstationarity after removing the effects of other time series acting as common forces. The DPXA method is a generalization of the detrended cross-correlation analysis …
Categorization is crucial for content description in archiving of music signals. On many occasions, human brain fails to classify the instruments properly just by listening to their sounds which is evident from the human response data collected during our experiment. Some previous attempts to categorize several musical instruments using various linear analysis methods required a number of parameters to be determined. In this work, we attempted to categorize a number of string instruments according to their mode of playing using latest-state-of-the-art robust non-linear methods. For this, 30 se…
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Multifractal detrended cross-correlation methodology is described and applied to Foreign exchange (Forex) market time series. Fluctuations of high frequency exchange rates of eight major world currencies over 2010-2018 period are used to study cross-correlations. The study is motivated by fundamental questions in complex systems' response to significant environmental changes and by potential applications in investment strategies, including detecting triangular arbitrage opportunities. Dominant multiscale cross-correlations between the exchange rates are found to typically occur at smaller fluc…
We use some fractal analysis methods to study river flow fluctuations. The result of the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) shows that there are two crossover timescales at $s_{1\times}\sim12$ and $s_{2\times}\sim130$ months in the fluctuation function. We discuss how the existence of the crossover timescales are related to a sinusoidal trend. The first crossover is due to the seasonal trend and the value of second ones is approximately equal to the well known cycle of sun activity. Using Fourier detrended fluctuation analysis, the sinusoidal trend is eliminated. The value of…
Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis stands out as one of the most reliable methods for unveiling multifractal properties, specially when real-world time series are under analysis. However, little is known about how several aspects, like artefacts during the data acquisition process, affect its results. In this work we have numerically investigated the performance of Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis applied to synthetic finite uncorrelated data following a power-law distribution in the presence of additive noise, and periodic and randomly-placed outliers. We have found that, …
This paper studies the daily connectivity time series of a wind speed-monitoring network using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. It investigates the long-range fluctuation and multifractality in the residuals of the connectivity time series. Our findings reveal that the daily connectivity of the correlation-based network is persistent for any correlation threshold. Further, the multifractality degree is higher for larger absolute values of the correlation threshold
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Unlike price fluctuations, the temporal structure of cryptocurrency trading has seldom been a subject of systematic study. In order to fill this gap, we analyse detrended correlations of the price returns, the average number of trades in time unit, and the traded volume based on high-frequency data representing two major cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ether. We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, which is considered the most reliable method for identifying nonlinear correlations in time series. We find that all the quantities considered in our study show an unambiguous …
We report an empirical study of Tehran Price Index (TEPIX). To analyze our data we use various methods like as, rescaled range analysis ($R/S$), modified rescaled range analysis (Lo's method), Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and generalized Hurst exponents analysis. Based on numerical results, the scaling range of TEPIX returns is specified, long memory effect or long range correlation property in this market is investigated, characteristic exponent for probability distribution function of TEPIX returns is derived and finally the stage of development in Tehran Stock Exchange is determined…
This work presents the application of Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis for the surface electromyography signals obtained from the patients suffering from rectal cancer. The electrical activity of an external anal sphincter at different levels of medical treatment is considered. The results from standard MFDFA and the EMD--based MFDFA method are compared. Two distinct scaling regions were identified. Within the region of short time scales the calculated spectra exhibit the shift towards higher values of the singularity exponent for both methods. In addition obtained spectra are shift…
Long-range correlation and fluctuation in the gold market time series of world's two leading gold consuming countries, namely China and India, are studied. For both the market series during the period 1985-2013 we observe a long-range persistence of memory in the sequences of maxima (minima) of returns in successive time windows of fixed length, but the series as a whole are found to be uncorrelated. Multifractal analysis for these series as well as for the sequences of maxima (minima) is carried out in terms of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. We observe a weak…
Based on the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) and on the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) methods we investigate the origin of multifractality in the time series. Series fluctuating according to a qGaussian distribution, both uncorrelated and correlated in time, are used. For the uncorrelated series at the border (q=5/3) between the Gaussian and the Levy basins of attraction asymptotically we find a phase-like transition between monofractal and bifractal characteristics. This indicates that these may solely be the specific nonlinear temporal correlations that organize…
Time series of heartbeat activity of humans can exhibit long-range correlations. In this paper we show that such kind of correlations can exist for the heartbeat activity of much simpler species like Drosophila melanogaster. By means of the method of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) we calculate fractal spectra $f(α)$ and $h(q)$ and investigate the correlation properties of heartbeat activity of Drosophila with genetic hearth defects for three consequent generations of species. We observe that opposite to the case of humans the time series of the heartbeat activity of healtl…
Based on the mathematical arguments formulated within the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) approach it is shown that in the uncorrelated time series from the Gaussian basin of attraction the effects resembling multifractality asymptotically disappear for positive moments when the length of time series increases. A hint is given that this applies to the negative moments as well and extends to the Lévy stable regime of fluctuations. The related effects are also illustrated and confirmed by numerical simulations. This documents that the genuine multifractality in time series ma…
The detrended cross-correlation coefficient $ρ_{\rm DCCA}$ has recently been proposed to quantify the strength of cross-correlations on different temporal scales in bivariate, non-stationary time series. It is based on the detrended cross-correlation and detrended fluctuation analyses (DCCA and DFA, respectively) and can be viewed as an analogue of the Pearson coefficient in the case of the fluctuation analysis. The coefficient $ρ_{\rm DCCA}$ works well in many practical situations but by construction its applicability is limited to detection of whether two signals are generally cross-correlat…
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In this paper we assessed changes in scaling properties of the river Danube level and flow data, associated with building of Djerdap/Iron Gates hydrological power plants positioned on the border of Romania and Serbia. We used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), wavelet transform spectral analysis (WTS) and wavelet-based modulus maxima method (WTMM) to investigate time series of river levels and river flows recorded at hydrological stations in the vicinity of dams and in the area of up to 480 km upstream from dams, and time series of simulated NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Global Reanalysis precipi…
Persistence without Multifractality in Tropical Atlantic SST Indices: Scaling-Range Artefacts and a Reappraisal of the ENSO Association
Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica（国家原子能委员会）；Instituto Sábato（萨巴托研究所）；Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso（德克萨斯大学埃尔帕索分校数学科学系）
The classical structure-function (SF) method in fully developed turbulence or for scaling processes in general is influenced by large-scale energetic structures, known as infrared effect. Therefore, the extracted scaling exponents $ζ(n)$ might be biased due to this effect. In this paper, a detrended structure-function (DSF) method is proposed to extract scaling exponents by constraining the influence of large-scale structures. This is accomplished by removing a $1$st-order polynomial fitting within a window size $\ell$ before calculating the velocity increment. By doing so, the scales larger t…
Statistical and multiscaling characteristics of WTI Crude Oil prices expressed in US dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the E-mini S$\&$P500 futures prices on 5 min intra-day recordings in the period January 2012 - December 2017 are studied. It is shown that in most of the cases the tails of return distributions of the considered financial instruments follow the inverse cubic power law. The only exception is the Russian ruble for which the distribution tail is heavier and scales with the exponent close to 2. From the perspective of multiscaling t…
In this paper we present an extended version of Hilbert-Huang transform, namely arbitrary-order Hilbert spectral analysis, to characterize the scale-invariant properties of a time series directly in an amplitude-frequency space. We first show numerically that due to a nonlinear distortion, traditional methods require high-order harmonic components to represent nonlinear processes, except for the Hilbert-based method. This will lead to an artificial energy flux from the low-frequency (large scale) to the high-frequency (small scale) part. Thus the power law, if it exists, is contaminated. We th…
We introduce a pipeline including multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) modified by either singular value decomposition or the adaptive method to examine the statistical properties of the pulsar timing residual ($PTR$) induced by a gravitational wave (GW) signal. We propose a new algorithm, the so-called irregular-MF-DXA, to deal with irregular data sampling. Inspired by the quadrupolar nature of the spatial cross-correlation function of a gravitational wave background, a new cross-correlation function, $\barσ_{\times}$, derived from irregular-MF-DXA will be introduced. We…
In this report, a systematic analysis of hourly wind speed data obtained from three potential wind generation sites (in North Dakota) is analyzed. The power spectra of the data exhibited a power-law decay characteristic of $1/f^α$ processes with possible long-range correlations. Conventional analysis using Hurst exponent estimators proved to be inconclusive. Subsequent analysis using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) revealed a crossover in the scaling exponent ($α$). At short time scales, a scaling exponent of $α\sim 1.4$ indicated that the data resembled Brownian noise, whereas for larger…
Based on a recently proposed $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient $ρ_q$, we generalize the concept of minimum spanning tree (MST) by introducing a family of $q$-dependent minimum spanning trees ($q$MST) that are selective to cross-correlations between different fluctuation amplitudes and different time scales. They inherit this ability directly from the coefficients $ρ_q$ that are processed here to construct a distance matrix. Conventional MST with detrending corresponds in this context to $q=2$. We apply the $q$MSTs to sample empirical data from the stock market and discuss t…
Hierarchical organization is a cornerstone of complexity and multifractality constitutes its central quantifying concept. For model uniform cascades the corresponding singularity spectra are symmetric while those extracted from empirical data are often asymmetric. Using the selected time series representing such diverse phenomena like price changes and inter-transaction times in the financial markets, sentence length variability in the narrative texts, Missouri River discharge and Sunspot Number variability as examples, we show that the resulting singularity spectra appear strongly asymmetric,…
We discuss the problem for detecting long-range correlations in sequences of values obtained by generators of pseudo-random numbers. The basic idea is that the H{ö}lder exponent for a sufficiently long sequence of uncorrelated random numbers has the fixed value $h=1/2$. The presence of long-range correlations leads to deviation from this value. We calculate the H{ö}lder exponent by the method of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). We discuss frequently used tests for randomness, finite sample properties of the MFDFA, and the conditions for a correct application of the method. …
