arXiv 0905.41712009-05-26q-fin.GN

有毒资产价格的预测市场

A Prediction Market for Toxic Assets Prices

Alan Holland

摘要：

我们建议开发一个预测市场，用于预测从爱尔兰银行转移到国家资产管理局（NAMA）的“有毒资产”的价格。这样的市场允许市场参与者持有价值与未来事件挂钩的证券的股份。我们建议设立证券，其价值取决于从非农产品市场准入向银行支付的贷款转移额。从本质上讲，赌注是接受的价格是高于或低于某一报价数字。证券的价格代表有毒资产的转移价格，根据市场意见增加或减少。预测市场提供了一种经过验证的方法，可以以可扩展和透明的方式聚合与公平市场价值有关的分布式知识。它们是激励相容的（即诱导真实的报告），并对战略操纵具有鲁棒性。我们建议预测市场与欧盟委员会建议的定价程序并行运行。这一程序不一定在所有情况下都要注意预测市场的观点，但它可以提供指导和异常检测的手段。在线预测市场将为每个人提供一个以公开和透明的方式“发表意见”的机会。

英文摘要：

We propose the development of a prediction market for forecasting prices for "toxic assets" to be transferred from Irish banks to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). Such a market allows market participants to assume a stake in a security whose value is tied to a future event. We propose that securities are created whose value hinges on the transfer amount paid for loans from NAMA to a bank. In essence, bets are accepted on whether the price is higher or lower than a certain quoted figure. The prices of the securities represent transfer prices for toxic assets increases or decreases in line with market opinion. Prediction markets offer a proven means of aggregating distributed knowledge pertaining to fair market values in a scalable and transparent manner. They are incentive compatible (i.e. induce truthful reporting) and robust to strategic manipulation. We propose that a prediction market is run in parallel with the pricing procedure recommended by the European Commission. This procedure need not necessarily take heed of the prediction markets view in all cases but it may offer guidance and a means of anomaly detection. An online prediction market would offer everybody an opportunity to "have their say" in an open and transparent manner.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。

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英文摘要：

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