This paper introduces a new approach to describe the spread of research topics across disciplines using epidemic models. The approach is based on applying individual-based models from mathematical epidemiology to the diffusion of a research topic over a contact network that represents knowledge flows over the map of science -as obtained from citations between ISI Subject Categories. Using research publications on the protein class kinesin as a case study, we report a better fit between model and empirical data when using the citation-based contact network. Incubation periods on the order of 4 to 15.5 years support the view that, whilst research topics may grow very quickly, they face difficulties to overcome disciplinary boundaries.
Citation count is a popular index for assessing scientific papers. However, it depends on not only the quality of a paper but also various factors, such as conventionality, team size, and gender. Here, we examine the extent to which the conventionality of a paper is related to its citation percentile in a discipline by using our measure, topic disparity. The topic disparity is the cosine distance between a paper and its discipline on a neural embedding space. Using this measure, we show that the topic disparity is negatively associated with the citation percentile in many disciplines, even aft…
Recently, hypergraphs have attracted considerable interest from the research community as a generalization of networks capable of encoding higher-order interactions, which commonly appear in both natural and social systems. Epidemic dynamics in hypergraphs has been studied by using the simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible ($s$-SIS) model; however, the efficient immunization strategy for epidemics in hypergraphs is not studied despite the importance of the topic in mathematical epidemiology. Here, we propose an immunization strategy that immunizes hyperedges with high simultaneous infect…
In this chapter, we focus on the problem of containing the spread of diseases taking place in both temporal and adaptive networks (i.e., networks whose structure `adapts' to the state of the disease). We specifically focus on the problem of finding the optimal allocation of containment resources (e.g., vaccines, medical personnel, traffic control resources, etc.) to eradicate epidemic outbreaks over the following three models of temporal and adaptive networks: (i) Markovian temporal networks, (ii) aggregated-Markovian temporal networks, and (iii) stochastically adaptive models. For each model,…
Epidemics on complex networks is a widely investigated topic in the last few years, mainly due to the last pandemic events. Usually, real contact networks are dynamic, hence much effort has been invested in studying epidemics on evolving networks. Here we propose and study a model for evolving networks based on varying degrees, where at each time step a node might get, with probability $r$, a new degree and new neighbors according to a given degree distribution, instead of its former neighbors. We find analytically, using the generating functions framework, the epidemic threshold and the proba…
Dynamical systems running on the top of complex networks has been extensively investigated for decades. But this topic still remains among the most relevant issues in complex network theory due to its range of applicability. The contact process (CP) and the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model are used quite often to describe epidemic dynamics. Despite their simplicity, these models are robust to predict the kernel of real situations. In this work, we review concisely both processes that are well-known and very applied examples of models that exhibit absorbing-state phase transitions. …
Power-law behaviors are common in many disciplines, especially in network science. Real-world networks, like disease spreading among people, are more likely to be interconnected communities, and show richer power-law behaviors than isolated networks. In this paper, we look at the system of two communities which are connected by bridge links between a fraction $r$ of bridge nodes, and study the effect of bridge nodes to the final state of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, by mapping it to link percolation. By keeping a fixed average connectivity, but allowing different transmissibilitie…
The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely important, which provide theoretical foundations for us to control epidemic spreading, predict collective behaviors in social systems, and so on. The coevolution spreading dynamics in complex networks has thus attracted much attention in many disciplines. In this review, we introduce recent pr…
Early detection and modeling of a contagious epidemic can provide important guidance about quelling the contagion, controlling its spread, or the effective design of countermeasures. A topic of recent interest has been to design social network sensors, i.e., identifying a small set of people who can be monitored to provide insight into the emergence of an epidemic in a larger population. We formally pose the problem of designing social network sensors for flu epidemics and identify two different objectives that could be targeted in such sensor design problems. Using the graph theoretic notion …
The aim of this paper is to study the historical evolution of mathematical thinking and its spatial spreading. To do so, we have collected and integrated data from different online academic datasets. In its final stage, the database includes a large number (N~200K) of advisor-student relationships, with affiliations and keywords on their research topic, over several centuries, from the 14th century until today. We focus on two different topics, the evolving importance of countries and of the research disciplines over time. Moreover we study the database at three levels, its global statistics, …
It is a fundamental question in disease modelling how the initial seeding of an epidemic, spreading over a network, determines its final outcome. Research in this topic has primarily concentrated on finding the seed configuration which infects the most individuals. Although these optimal configurations give insight into how the initial state affects the outcome of an epidemic, they are unlikely to occur in real life. In this paper we identify two important seeding scenarios, both motivated by historical data, that reveal a new complex phenomenon. In one scenario, the seeds are concentrated on …
Epidemic modeling in complex networks has become one of the latest topics in recent times. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model and its variants are often used for epidemic modeling. One important issue in epidemic modeling is the determination of the spreading ability of the nodes in the network. Thus, for example, can be detected in the early stages. In this study, we developed a centrality measure called Lexical Sorting Centrality (LSC) that distinguishes the spreading ability of the nodes. Using other centrality measures calculated for the nodes, LSC sorts the nodes in a way si…
In scientific research, collaboration is one of the most effective ways to take advantage of new ideas, skills, resources, and for performing interdisciplinary research. Although collaboration networks have been intensively studied, the question of how individual scientists choose collaborators to study a new research topic remains almost unexplored. Here, we investigate the statistics and mechanisms of collaborations of individual scientists along their careers, revealing that, in general, collaborators are involved in significantly fewer topics than expected from controlled surrogate. In par…
Objective: The novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak rapidly evolved into pandemic. Global research efforts focus on this topic and with the collaboration of the scientific journals publication industry produced more than 16,000 related published articles in PubMed within five months from the onset of the outbreak. Herein, a comparison of the COVID-19 citations in PubMed and Web of Science was performed with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Ebola, Zika, avian and swine influenza epidemics. Methods: The citations were searched and collected using the disease terms and the date of publication restriction. The …
We analyze the curriculum of the early common-years of engineering in our institute using tools of statistical physics of complex networks. Naturally, a course programme is structured in a networked form (temporal dependency and prerequisites). In this approach, each topic within each programme is associated with a node, which in turn is joined by links representing the dependence of a topic for the understanding of another in a different discipline. As a course programme is a time-dependent structure, we propose a simple model to assign links between nodes, taking into account only two ingred…
Large language models for spreading dynamics in complex systems
School of Cyber Science and Engineering, Sichuan University（四川大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Key Laboratory of Data Protection and Intelligent Management (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education（数据保护与智能管理重点实验室（四川大学））；Cyber Science Research Institute, Sichuan University（网络科学研究院）；Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University（皇家墨尔本理工大学）；Physics Department, University of Fribourg（弗里堡大学物理系）；Chongqing Academy of Preventive Medicine（重庆预防医学研究院）；School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Chongqing Medical and Pharmaceutical College（重庆医药学院公共卫生与应急管理学院）；School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University（重庆医科大学公共卫生学院）
With an increasing number of new scientific papers being released, it becomes harder for researchers to be aware of recent articles in their field of study. Accurately classifying papers is a first step in the direction of personalized catering and easy access to research of interest. The field of Density Functional Theory (DFT) in particular is a good example of a methodology used in very different studies, and interconnected disciplines, which has a very strong community publishing many research articles. We devise a new unsupervised method for classifying publications, based on topic modeli…
Dynamic models and statistical inference for the diffusion of information in social networks is an area which has witnessed remarkable progress in the last decade due to the proliferation of social networks. Modeling and inference of diffusion of information has applications in targeted advertising and marketing, forecasting elections, predicting investor sentiment and identifying epidemic outbreaks. This chapter discusses three important aspects related to information diffusion in social networks: (i) How does observation bias named friendship paradox (a graph theoretic consequence) and monop…
Although the gender gap in academia has narrowed, females are underrepresented within some fields in the USA. Prior research suggests that the imbalances between science, technology, engineering and mathematics fields may be partly due to greater male interest in things and greater female interest in people, or to off-putting masculine cultures in some disciplines. To seek more detailed insights across all subjects, this article compares practising US male and female researchers between and within 285 narrow Scopus fields inside 26 broad fields from their first-authored articles published in 2…
The appearance of a novel coronavirus in late 2019 radically changed the community of researchers working on coronaviruses since the 2002 SARS epidemic. In 2020, coronavirus-related publications grew by 20 times over the previous two years, with 130,000 more researchers publishing on related topics. The United States, the United Kingdom and China led dozens of nations working on coronavirus prior to the pandemic, but leadership consolidated among these three nations in 2020, which collectively accounted for 50% of all papers, garnering well more than 60% of citations. China took an early lead …
