The measured properties of stellar oscillations can provide powerful constraints on the internal structure and composition of stars. To begin this process, oscillation frequencies must be extracted from the observational data, typically time series of the star's brightness or radial velocity. In this paper, a probabilistic model is introduced for inferring the frequencies and amplitudes of stellar oscillation modes from data, assuming that there is some periodic character to the oscillations, but that they may not be exactly sinusoidal. Effectively we fit damped oscillations to the time series, and hence the mode lifetime is also recovered. While this approach is computationally demanding for large time series (> 1500 points), it should at least allow improved analysis of observations of solar-like oscillations in subgiant and red giant stars, as well as sparse observations of semiregular stars, where the number of points in the time series is often low. The method is demonstrated on simulated data and then applied to radial velocity measurements of the red giant star xi Hydrae, yielding a mode lifetime between 0.41 and 2.65 days with 95% posterior probability. The large frequency separation between modes is ambiguous, however we argue that the most plausible value is 6.3 microHz, based on the radial velocity data and the star's position in the HR diagram.
We present our preliminary results of the modelling of the F5 star Procyon A. The frequencies predicted by our models are compared with the frequencies extracted through a global fit to the power spectrum obtained by the latest ground-based observations, which provides two different mode identification scenarios.
The simultaneous presence of variability due to both pulsations and binarity is no rare phenomenon. Unfortunately, the complexities of dealing with even one of these sources of variability individually means that the other signal is often treated as a nuisance and discarded. However, both types of variability offer means to probe fundamental stellar properties in robust ways through asteroseismic and binary modelling. We present an efficient methodology that includes both binary and asteroseismic information to estimate fundamental stellar properties based on a grid-based modelling approach. W…
The detection and analysis of oscillations in binary star systems is critical in understanding stellar structure and evolution. This is partly because such systems have the same initial chemical composition and age. Solar-like oscillations have been detected by Kepler in both components of the asteroseismic binary HD 176465. We present an independent modelling of each star in this binary system. Stellar models generated using MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) were fitted to both the observed individual frequencies and complementary spectroscopic parameters. The individual …
Context. In asteroseismology the pulsation mode frequencies of a star are the fundamental data that are compared to theoretical predictions to determine a star's interior physics. Recent significant advances in the numerical, theoretical and statistical asteroseismic methods applied to main sequence stars with convective cores have renewed the interest in investigating the propagation of observational uncertainties within a forward asteroseismic modelling framework. Aims. We aim to quantify the impact of various choices made throughout the observational aspects of extracting pulsation mode fre…
We present the results of analysis and modelling of the eclipsing binary system, KIC 10661783. The Fourier analysis of the Kepler light curve, corrected for the binary effects, reveals 750 frequency peaks in both p and g-mode regions. Those with the highest amplitudes concentrate in the range of 20-30 d$^{-1}$. To reproduce observed spectrum of frequencies we construct seismic models accounting for the mode instability. In order to obtain instabilities in the g-mode regime we modify the opacity tables data near the Z-bump. In order to reproduce system parameters, we construct evolutionary mode…
We model the oscillations of the SONG target $μ$ Herculis to estimate the parameters of the star. The $\ell$ = 1 mixed modes of $μ$ Her provide strong constraints on stellar properties. The mass and age given by our asteroseismic modelling are 1.10$^{+0.11}_{-0.06}$ M$_{\odot}$ and 7.55$^{+0.96}_{-0.79}$ Gyr. The initial helium abundance is also constrained at around $Y_{\rm{init}}$ = 0.28, suggesting a ratio in the elements enrichment law ($ΔY/ΔZ$) around 1.3, which is closed to the solar value. The mixing-length parameter converges to about 1.7, which is $\sim$ 10\% lower than the solar valu…
The goal of AIMS (Asteroseismic Inference on a Massive Scale) is to estimate stellar parameters and credible intervals/error bars in a Bayesian manner from a set of asteroseismic frequency data and so-called classical constraints. To achieve reliable parameter estimates and computational efficiency, it searches through a grid of pre-computed models using an MCMC algorithm -- interpolation within the grid of models is performed by first tessellating the grid using a Delaunay triangulation and then doing a linear barycentric interpolation on matching simplexes. Inputs for the modelling consist o…
An increasingly popular method to determine stellar ages of red-giant stars for the purpose of Galactic archaeology is asteroseismic grid-based modelling (GBM). In asteroseismic GBM of red-giant stars with solar-like oscillations the large frequency separation ($Δν$) and the frequency of maximum oscillation power ($ν_{\rm max}$) are commonly used asteroseismic observables, in addition to the usual spectroscopic parameters effective temperature ($T_{\rm eff}$) and metallicity ([Fe/H]). The precision with which $Δν$ and $ν_{\rm max}$ can be determined largely depends on the length of the timeser…
Spatio-temporal processes in environmental applications are often assumed to follow a Gaussian model, possibly after some transformation. However, heterogeneity in space and time might have a pattern that will not be accommodated by transforming the data. In this scenario, modelling the variance laws is an appealing alternative. This work adds flexibility to the usual Multivariate Dynamic Gaussian model by defining the process as a scale mixture between a Gaussian and log-Gaussian processes. The scale is represented by a process varying smoothly over space and time which is allowed to depend o…
In the last years, space missions such as COROT, Kepler or MOST have provided very accurate photometric observational data. In the particular case of $δ$ Scuti stars, the observed frequency spectra have hundreds (if not thousands) of modes and a clear amplitude distribution. In this work we present new techniques for modelling these observations and the results obtained. We searched for regular patterns in the observational data, which yields something resembling the large separation. This allows to reduce the possible positions of the star in the HR diagram, yielding a value of the mean densi…
Heavy-tailed distributions are widely used in robust mixture modelling due to possessing thick tails. As a computationally tractable subclass of the stable distributions, sub-Gaussian $α$-stable distribution received much interest in the literature. Here, we introduce a type of expectation maximization algorithm that estimates parameters of a mixture of sub-Gaussian stable distributions. A comparative study, in the presence of some well-known mixture models, is performed to show the robustness and performance of the mixture of sub-Gaussian $α$-stable distributions for modelling, simulated, syn…
We aim to unravel the interior mixing profile of the pulsating eclipsing binary KIC9850387 by comparing its dynamical parameters and the parameters derived through a combination of evolutionary and asteroseismic modelling. We created a grid of stellar evolutionary models using the stellar evolutionary code \textsc{mesa} and performed an isochrone-cloud (isocloud) based evolutionary modelling of the system. We then generated a grid of pulsational models using the stellar pulsation code \textsc{gyre} based on the age constraints from the evolutionary modelling. Finally, we performed asteroseismi…
Context. Asteroseismology is an effcient tool not only for testing stellar structure and evolutionary theory but also constraining the parameters of stars for which solar-like oscillations are detected, presently. As an important southern asteroseismic target, Tau Ceti, is a metal-poor star. The main features of the oscillations and some frequencies of ? Ceti have been identified. Many scientists propose to comprehensively observe this star as part of the Stellar Observations Network Group. Aims. Our goal is to obtain the optimal model and reliable fundamental parameters for the metal-poor sta…
We consider latent Gaussian fields for modelling spatial dependence in the context of both spatial point patterns and areal data, providing two different applications. The inhomogeneous Log-Gaussian Cox Process model is specified to describe a seismic sequence occurred in Greece, resorting to the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations. The Besag-York-Mollie model is fitted for disease mapping of the Covid-19 infection in the North of Italy. These models both belong to the class of Bayesian hierarchical models with latent Gaussian fields whose posterior is not available in closed form. There…
We present the results of modelling the subgiant star $β$ Hydri using the seismic observational constraints. We have computed several grids of stellar evolutionary tracks using Aarhus STellar Evolution Code (ASTEC, Christensen-Dalsgaard, 2008a), with and without helium diffusion and settling. For those models on each track that are located at the observationally determined position of $β$ Hydri in the HR diagram, we have calculated the oscillation frequencies using Aarhus adiabatic pulsation package (ADIPLS, Christensen-Dalsgaard, 2008b). Applying the near-surface corrections to the calculated…
The present work performs an asteroseismic study of a gamma Doradus star member of the open cluster NGC 2506. This work conjugates the observational information of the star and the strong constraints imposed by the cluster membership, with the latest developed theoretical asteroseismic tools for the modelling of this type of objects, in particular the Frequency Ratio Method (FRM) and Time-Dependent Convection (TDC), to study the gamma Dor stars found in the NGC 2506 stellar cluster. The use of both techniques gives us the opportunity of constructing a self-consistent procedure, allowing the mo…
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by complex and largely unknown progression dynamics affecting the brain's morphology. Although the disease evolution spans decades, to date we cannot rely on long-term data to model the pathological progression, since most of the available measures are on a short-term scale. It is therefore difficult to understand and quantify the temporal progression patterns affecting the brain regions across the AD evolution. In this work, we tackle this problem by presenting a generative model based on probabilistic matrix factorization across temporal and spatial …
Stellar photospheric activity is known to limit the detection and characterisation of extra-solar planets. In particular, the study of Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars requires data analysis methods that can accurately model the stellar activity phenomena affecting radial velocity (RV) measurements. Gaussian Process Regression Networks (GPRNs) offer a principled approach to the analysis of simultaneous time-series, combining the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian Processes. Using HARPS-N solar spectroscopic observations enc…
Localised modelling error in the near-surface layers of evolutionary stellar models causes the frequencies of their normal modes of oscillation to differ from those of actual stars with matching interior structures. These frequency differences are referred to as the asteroseismic surface term. Global stellar properties estimated via detailed constraints on individual mode frequencies have previously been shown to be robust with respect to different parameterisations of this surface term. It has also been suggested that this may be true of a broader class of nonparametric treatments. We examine…
Dynamic paired comparison models, such as Elo and Glicko, are frequently used for sports prediction and ranking players or teams. We present an alternative dynamic paired comparison model which uses a Gaussian Process (GP) as a prior for the time dynamics rather than the Markovian dynamics usually assumed. In addition, we show that the GP model can easily incorporate covariates. We derive an efficient approximate Bayesian inference procedure based on the Laplace Approximation and sparse linear algebra. We select hyperparameters by maximising their marginal likelihood using Bayesian Optimisatio…
We introduce the Gaussian process (GP) modelling module developed within the UQLab software framework. The novel design of the GP-module aims at providing seamless integration of GP modelling into any uncertainty quantification workflow, as well as a stand-alone surrogate modelling tool. We first briefly present the key mathematical tools at the basis of GP modelling (a.k.a. Kriging), as well as the associated theoretical and computational framework. We then provide an extensive overview of the available features of the software and demonstrate its flexibility and user-friendliness. Finally, w…
We present the results of a spectroscopic multisite campaign for the beta Cephei star 12 (DD) Lacertae. Our study is based on more than thousand high-resolution high S/N spectra gathered with 8 different telescopes in a time span of 11 months. In addition we make use of numerous archival spectroscopic measurements. We confirm 10 independent frequencies recently discovered from photometry, as well as harmonics and combination frequencies. In particular, the SPB-like g-mode with frequency 0.3428 1/d reported before is detected in our spectroscopy. We identify the four main modes as (l1,m1) = (1,…
Real music signals are highly variable, yet they have strong statistical structure. Prior information about the underlying physical mechanisms by which sounds are generated and rules by which complex sound structure is constructed (notes, chords, a complete musical score), can be naturally unified using Bayesian modelling techniques. Typically algorithms for Automatic Music Transcription independently carry out individual tasks such as multiple-F0 detection and beat tracking. The challenge remains to perform joint estimation of all parameters. We present a Bayesian approach for modelling music…
Surrogate models have shown to be an extremely efficient aid in solving engineering problems that require repeated evaluations of an expensive computational model. They are built by sparsely evaluating the costly original model and have provided a way to solve otherwise intractable problems. A crucial aspect in surrogate modelling is the assumption of smoothness and regularity of the model to approximate. This assumption is however not always met in reality. For instance in civil or mechanical engineering, some models may present discontinuities or non-smoothness, e.g., in case of instability …
Probabilistic Wind Power Modelling via Heteroscedastic Non-Stationary Gaussian Processes
Department of Statistical Science, University College London（统计科学系，伦敦大学学院）；Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge（工程系，剑桥大学）；Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business（统计系，雅典经济与商业大学）
We present techniques for effective Gaussian process (GP) modelling of multiple short time series. These problems are common when applying GP models independently to each gene in a gene expression time series data set. Such sets typically contain very few time points. Naive application of common GP modelling techniques can lead to severe over-fitting or under-fitting in a significant fraction of the fitted models, depending on the details of the data set. We propose avoiding over-fitting by constraining the GP length-scale to values that focus most of the energy spectrum to frequencies below t…
In the univariate setting, using the kernel spectral representation is an appealing approach for generating stationary covariance functions. However, performing the same task for multiple-output Gaussian processes is substantially more challenging. We demonstrate that current approaches to modelling cross-covariances with a spectral mixture kernel possess a critical blind spot. For a given pair of processes, the cross-covariance is not reproducible across the full range of permitted correlations, aside from the special case where their spectral densities are of identical shape. We present a so…
University of Barcelona（巴塞罗那大学）；Polytechnic University of Catalunya（加泰罗尼亚理工大学）
This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasti…
Various approaches to stochastic processes exist, noting that key properties such as measurability and continuity are not trivially satisfied. We introduce a new theory for Gaussian processes using improper linear functionals. Using a collection of i.i.d. standard normal variables, we define Gaussian white noise and discuss its properties. This is extended to general Gaussian processes on Hilbert space, where the variance is allowed to be any suitable operator. Our main focus is $L^2$ spaces, and we discuss criteria for Gaussian processes to be continuous in this setting. Finally, we outline a…
KIC 4150611: A quadruply eclipsing heptuple star system with a g-mode period-spacing pattern Asteroseismic modelling of the g-mode period-spacing pattern
Despite the fact that the initial helium abundance is an essential ingredient in modelling solar-type stars, its abundance in these stars remains a poorly constrained observational property. This is because the effective temperature in these stars is not high enough to allow helium ionization, not allowing any conclusions on its abundance when spectroscopic techniques are employed. To this end, stellar modellers resort to estimating the initial helium abundance via a semi-empirical helium-to-heavy element ratio, anchored to the the standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis value. Depending on the choi…
Asteroseismic forward modelling techniques are being used to determine fundamental properties (e.g. mass, radius, and age) of solar-type stars. The need to take into account all possible sources of error is of paramount importance towards a robust determination of stellar properties. We present a study of 34 solar-type stars for which high signal-to-noise asteroseismic data is available from multi-year Kepler photometry. We explore the internal systematics on the stellar properties, that is, associated with the uncertainty in the input physics used to construct the stellar models. In particula…
Rapidly estimating the remaining wall thickness (RWT) is paramount for the non-destructive condition assessment evaluation of large critical metallic pipelines. A robotic vehicle with embedded magnetism-based sensors has been developed to traverse the inside of a pipeline and conduct inspections at the location of a break. However its sensing speed is constrained by the magnetic principle of operation, thus slowing down the overall operation in seeking dense RWT mapping. To ameliorate this drawback, this work proposes the partial scanning of the pipe and then employing Gaussian Processes (GPs)…
Detailed understanding of stellar physics is essential towards a robust determination of stellar properties (e.g. radius, mass, and age). Among the vital input physics used in the modelling of solar-type stars which remain poorly constrained, is the initial helium abundance. To this end, when constructing stellar model grids, the initial helium abundance is estimated either (i) by using the semi-empirical helium-to-heavy element enrichment ratio, (${ΔY}/{ΔZ}$), anchored to the standard Big Bang Nucleosynthesis value or (ii) by setting the initial helium abundance as a free variable. Adopting 3…
We present results of comprehensive seismic modelling of the B-type main-sequence pulsator $ν$ Eridani, which consists in parallel fitting of the pulsational frequencies and corresponding values of the complex, nonadiabatic parameter $f$, defined by the bolometric flux perturbation. This kind of studies, which we call {\it complex asteroseismology}, provides a unique test of stellar opacities. Our results indicate a preference for the OPAL data.
Models of solar-like oscillators yield acoustic modes at different frequencies than would be seen in actual stars possessing identical interior structure, due to modelling error near the surface. This asteroseismic "surface term" must be corrected when mode frequencies are used to infer stellar structure. Subgiants exhibit oscillations of mixed acoustic ($p$-mode) and gravity ($g$-mode) character, which defy description by the traditional $p$-mode asymptotic relation. Since nonparametric diagnostics of the surface term rely on this description, they cannot be applied to subgiants directly. In …
Current stellar model predictions of adiabatic oscillation frequencies differ significantly from the corresponding observed frequencies due to the non-adiabatic and poorly understood near-surface layers of stars. However, certain combinations of frequencies -- known as frequency ratios -- are largely unaffected by the uncertain physical processes as they are mostly sensitive to the stellar core. Furthermore, the seismic signature of helium ionization provides envelope properties while being almost independent of the outermost layers. We have developed an advanced stellar modelling approach in …
Is a 1D perturbative method sufficient for asteroseismic modelling of $β$ Cephei pulsators? Implications for measurements of rotation and internal magnetic fields
Context: Recently, the CoRoT target HD 175272 (F5V), which shows a weak signal of solar-like oscillations, was modelled by a differential asteroseismic analysis (Ozel et al. 2013) relative to a seismically similar star, HD 181420 (F2V), for which there is a clear signature of solar-like oscillations. The results provided by Ozel et al. (2013) indicate the possibility of HD 175272 having subsolar mass, while being of the order of 1000 K hotter than the Sun. This seems unphysical -- standard stellar evolution theory generally does not predict solar-metallicity stars of subsolar mass to be hotter…
Pulsating binary stars are ideal targets for testing the theory of stellar structure and evolution. Fundamental parameters can be derived to high precision from binary modelling and provide crucial constraints for seismic modelling. High-order gravity modes are sensitive to the conditions near the convective core and therefore allow for a determination of parameters describing interior physics, especially the convective-core overshooting parameter. KIC\,10080943 is a binary system that contains two gravity- and pressure-mode hybrid pulsators. A detailed observational study has provided fundame…
We present an in-depth analysis of the bright subgiant HR 7322 (KIC 10005473) using Kepler short-cadence photometry, optical interferometry from CHARA, high-resolution spectra from SONG, and stellar modelling using GARSTEC grids and the Bayesian grid-fitting algorithm BASTA. HR 7322 is only the second subgiant with high-quality Kepler asteroseismology for which we also have interferometric data. We find a limb-darkened angular diameter of $0.443 \pm 0.007$ mas, which, combined with a distance derived using the parallax from Gaia DR2 and a bolometric flux, yields a linear radius of $2.00 \pm 0.…
According to the rotational splitting law of g modes, the frequency spectra of EE Cam can be disentangled only with oscillation modes of $\ell$ = 0, 1, and 2. Fifteen sets of rotational splits are found, containing five sets of $\ell=1$ multiplets and ten sets of $\ell=2$ multiplets. The rotational period of EE Cam is deduced to be $P_{\rm rot}$ = $1.84_{-0.05}^{+0.07}$ days. When we do model fittings, we use two nonradial oscillation modes ($f_{11}$ and $f_{32}$) and the fundamental radial mode $f_{1}$. The fitting results show that $χ^{2}$ of the best-fitting model is much smaller than those…
HD\,139614 is known to be a $\sim$14-Myr-old, possibly pre-main-sequence star in the Sco-Cen OB association in the Upper Centaurus-Lupus subgroup, with a slightly warped circumstellar disc containing ring structures hinting at one or more planets. The star's chemical abundance pattern is metal-deficient except for volatile elements, which places it in the $λ$ Boo class and suggests it has recently accreted gas-rich but dust-poor material. We identify seven dipole and four radial pulsation modes among its $δ$ Sct pulsations using the TESS light curve and an échelle diagram. Precision modelling …
The advent of space-based photometry missions in the early 21st century enabled the application to asteroseismic data of advanced inference techniques until then restricted to the field of helioseismology. The high quality of the observations, the discovery of mixed modes in evolved solar-like oscillators and the need for an improvement in the determination of stellar fundamental parameters such as mass, radius and age led to the development of sophisticated modelling tools, amongst which seismic inversions play a key role. In this review, we will discuss the existing inversion techniques for …
