（101955）1999 RQ36的长期影响风险
Long-term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36
摘要：
具有潜在危险的小行星（101955）1999 RQ 36有可能在22世纪下半叶与地球相撞，远远超出常规撞击监测的传统100年时间范围。这些概率累积到大约10 E-3的总撞击概率，其中在2182中撞击的一对密切相关的路线占总数的一半以上。对未来撞击可能性的分析在很大程度上取决于Yarkovsky效应的作用，这对仔细评估长期撞击危害提出了新的挑战。即使对于轨道非常精确的小行星，未来接近地球的可能轨迹也会分散，以至于问题变得像一个新发现的轨道很弱的小行星。如果散射发生得足够晚，以致目标平面的不确定性主要由Yarkovsky加速度决定，那么小行星的热特性（通常是未知的）在撞击评估中起着主要作用。相比之下，如果强行星相互作用发生得更快，而雅科夫斯基色散与测量结果相比仍然相对较小，那么非引力加速度的精确建模可能是不必要的。
英文摘要：
The potentially hazardous asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 has the possibility of collision with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10E-3, with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the action of the Yarkovsky effect, which raises new challenges in the careful assessment of longer term impact hazards. Even for asteroids with very precisely determined orbits, a future close approach to Earth can scatter the possible trajectories to the point that the problem becomes like that of a newly discovered asteroid with a weakly determined orbit. If the scattering takes place late enough so that the target plane uncertainty is dominated by Yarkovsky accelerations then the thermal properties of the asteroid,which are typically unknown, play a major role in the impact assessment. In contrast, if the strong planetary interaction takes place sooner, while the Yarkovsky dispersion is still relatively small compared to that derived from the measurements, then precise modeling of the nongravitational acceleration may be unnecessary.
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