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arXiv 0811.4256physics.soc-phcond-mat.stat-mechq-fin.TR
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最小Agent模型中的自组织机制和有限尺寸效应

Mechanisms of Self-Organization and Finite Size Effects in a Minimal Agent Based Model

V. Alfi, M. Cristelli, L. Pietronero, A. Zaccaria

摘要:

我们提出了一个详细的分析,自组织现象中的程式化的事实源于有限大小的影响,考虑代理的数量和消失在一个无限的人口的限制。通过引入代理人可以根据价格行为进入或离开市场的可能性,可以表明系统在具有有限数量代理人的制度中自组织,这与程式化事实相对应。进入或离开市场的机制是基于这样一种想法,即过于稳定的市场对交易者没有吸引力,而价格波动的存在则吸引代理人进入市场并在市场上投机。我们表明,这种机制也是兼容的想法,代理人害怕在较短的时间尺度的嘈杂和风险的市场。我们还表明,自组织的机制是强大的退出/进入规则的变化,并试图触发系统的自组织在一个地区没有程式化的事实导致一个不切实际的动态。我们在一个特定的代理模型中研究自组织,但我们认为,基本思想应该是普遍有效的。

英文摘要:

We present a detailed analysis of the self-organization phenomenon in which the stylized facts originate from finite size effects with respect to the number of agents considered and disappear in the limit of an infinite population. By introducing the possibility that agents can enter or leave the market depending on the behavior of the price, it is possible to show that the system self-organizes in a regime with a finite number of agents which corresponds to the stylized facts. The mechanism to enter or leave the market is based on the idea that a too stable market is unappealing for traders while the presence of price movements attracts agents to enter and speculate on the market. We show that this mechanism is also compatible with the idea that agents are scared by a noisy and risky market at shorter time scales. We also show that the mechanism for self-organization is robust with respect to variations of the exit/entry rules and that the attempt to trigger the system to self-organize in a region without stylized facts leads to an unrealistic dynamics. We study the self-organization in a specific agent based model but we believe that the basic ideas should be of general validity.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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