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arXiv 0810.5583physics.soc-ph
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情景规划和纳米技术的未来

Scenario Planning and Nanotechnological Futures

Darryl Farber, Akhlesh Lakhtakia

摘要:

情景规划可以帮助我们利用纳米技术的好处和管理相关的风险,为社会的利益。情景规划是一种描述世界现状和发展关于世界未来的几个假设的方法,从而使关于世界应该是什么样的讨论成为可能。因此,情景规划不仅是学习和展望的工具,也是领导的工具。专家和政治领导人能够作出知情的决策,同时减轻公众对纳米技术等新兴技术的风险的看法。纳米技术的社会影响的两种情况是混合信号的情况和汇流的情况。技术科学家在这两种情况下都可以发挥重要作用。

英文摘要:

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision-making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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