将冲突不确定性纳入电力规划：南苏丹案例研究
Building Conflict Uncertainty into Electricity Planning: A South Sudan Case Study
摘要：
本文探讨了未来冲突不确定性下南苏丹的电力规划策略。提出了一种明确考虑武装冲突导致电功率发电机损坏可能性的随机能源系统优化模型。在与冲突有关的中等损害情况下，防范未来冲突的战略具有最大的经济价值，因为它避免了对可能随后受到损害的基础设施进行昂贵的近期投资。模型结果表明，太阳能光伏发电可以发挥关键作用，在南苏丹的未来电功率系统。除了减少温室气体排放和增加电力供应外，这项分析还表明，太阳能可以用来对冲冲突造成的经济损失。虽然本分析侧重于南苏丹，但分析框架也可适用于其他易发生冲突的国家。
英文摘要：
This paper explores electricity planning strategies in South Sudan under future conflict uncertainty. A stochastic energy system optimization model that explicitly considers the possibility of armed conflict leading to electric power generator damage is presented. Strategies that hedge against future conflict have the greatest economic value in moderate conflict-related damage scenarios by avoiding expensive near-term investments in infrastructure that may be subsequently damaged. Model results show that solar photovoltaics can play a critical role in South Sudan's future electric power system. In addition to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and increasing access to electricity, this analysis suggests that solar can be used to hedge against economic losses incurred by conflict. While this analysis focuses on South Sudan, the analytical framework can be applied to other conflict-prone countries.
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