arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 0807.3814physics.soc-phphysics.ed-phq-fin.GN
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社会经济学、数学分析和复杂系统的可预测性的交叉学科

Interdisciplinarity in Socio-economics, mathematical analysis and predictability of complex systems

D. Sornette

摘要:

本文试图为Hollingworth和Mueller(2008)提出的“用新的认识论改造社会经济学”的论点提供支持性证据和某种平衡。首先,我回顾了我自己的科学道路的个人亮点,说明了跨学科的力量以及自然和社会过程的数学描述的统一。我还反对这样的说法,即复杂系统一般来说“不容易受到数学分析的影响,但必须通过让它们随着时间的推移或模拟分析来理解”。此外,我提出的证据的限制的索赔,科学家在科学II不作出预测的未来,因为它太复杂。我强调的潜力,第三个“量子科学”及其相关的概念和哲学革命,最后指出一些限制的“新”理论的网络。

英文摘要:

In this essay, I attempt to provide supporting evidence as well as some balance for the thesis on `Transforming socio-economics with a new epistemology' presented by Hollingworth and Mueller (2008). First, I review a personal highlight of my own scientific path that illustrates the power of interdisciplinarity as well as unity of the mathematical description of natural and social processes. I also argue against the claim that complex systems are in general `not susceptible to mathematical analysis, but must be understood by letting them evolve over time or with simulation analysis'. Moreover, I present evidence of the limits of the claim that scientists working within Science II do not make predictions about the future because it is too complex. I stress the potentials for a third `Quantum Science' and its associated conceptual and philosophical revolutions, and finally point out some limits of the `new' theory of networks.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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