We extend the previously described CMB Gibbs sampling framework to allow for exact Bayesian analysis of anisotropic universe models, and apply this method to the 5-year WMAP temperature observations. This involves adding support for non-diagonal signal covariance matrices, and implementing a general spectral parameter MCMC sampler. As a worked example we apply these techniques to the model recently introduced by Ackerman et al., describing for instance violations of rotational invariance during the inflationary epoch. After verifying the code with simulated data, we analyze the foreground-reduced 5-year WMAP temperature sky maps. For l <= 400 and the W-band data, we find tentative evidence for a preferred direction pointing towards (l,b) = (110 deg, 10 deg) with an anisotropy amplitude of g_* = 0.15 +/- 0.039. Similar results are obtained from the V-band data [g_* = 0.10 +/- 0.04; (l,b) = (130 deg, 20 deg)]. Further, the preferred direction is stable with respect to multipole range, seen independently in both l=[2,100] and [100,400], although at lower statistical significance. We have not yet been able to establish a fully satisfactory explanation for the observations in terms of known systematics, such as non-cosmological foregrounds, correlated noise or asymmetric beams, but stress that further study of all these issues is warranted before a cosmological interpretation can be supported.
We explore methods of fitting templates to cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, and in particular demonstrate the application of the total convolver algorithm as a fast method of performing a search over all possible locations and orientations of the template relative to the sky. This analysis includes investigation of issues such as chance alignments and foreground residuals. We apply these methods to compare Bianchi models of type VII_h to WMAP first year data and confirm the basic result of our 2005 paper.
We present a Bayesian model selection analysis of WMAP3 data using our code CosmoNest. We focus on the density perturbation spectral index $n_S$ and the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$, which define the plane of slow-roll inflationary models. We find that while the Bayesian evidence supports the conclusion that $n_S \neq 1$, the data are not yet powerful enough to do so at a strong or decisive level. If tensors are assumed absent, the current odds are approximately 8 to 1 in favour of $n_S \neq 1$ under our assumptions, when WMAP3 data is used together with external data sets. WMAP3 data on its own…
We present the first results from a Bayesian analysis of the WMAP first year data using a Gibbs sampling technique. Using two independent, parallel supercomputer codes we analyze the WMAP Q, V and W bands. The analysis results in a full probabilistic description of the information the WMAP data set contains about the power spectrum and the all-sky map of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies. We present the complete probability distributions for each C_l including any non-Gaussianities of the power spectrum likelihood. While we find good overall agreement with the previously published W…
We apply a previously developed Gibbs sampling framework to the foreground corrected 3-yr WMAP polarization data and compute the power spectrum and residual foreground template amplitude posterior distributions. We first analyze the co-added Q- and V-band data, and compare our results to the likelihood code published by the WMAP team. We find good agreement, and thus verify the numerics and data processing steps of both approaches. However, we also analyze the Q- and V-bands separately, allowing for non-zero EB cross-correlations and including two individual foreground template amplitudes trac…
Several accurate analyses of the CMB temperature maps from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) have revealed a set of anomalous results, at large angular scales, that appears inconsistent with the statistical isotropy expected in the concordance cosmological model $Λ$CDM. Because these anomalies seem to indicate a preferred direction in the space, here we investigate the signatures that a primordial magnetic field, possibly present in the photon-baryon fluid during the decoupling era, could have produced in the large-angle modes of the observed CMB temperature fluctuations maps. To…
We describe a sampling method to estimate the polarized CMB signal from observed maps of the sky. We use a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm to estimate the polarized CMB map, containing Q and U Stokes parameters at each pixel, and its covariance matrix. These can be used as inputs for cosmological analyses. The polarized sky signal is parameterized as the sum of three components: CMB, synchrotron emission, and thermal dust emission. The polarized Galactic components are modeled with spatially varying power law spectral indices for the synchrotron, and a fixed power law for the dust, and their…
I revisit the question of the adiabaticity of initial conditions for cosmological perturbations in view of the 3-year WMAP data. I focus on the simplest alternative to pure adiabatic conditions, namely a superposition of the adiabatic mode and one of the 3 possible isocurvature modes, with the same spectral index as the adiabatic component. I discuss findings in terms of posterior bounds on the isocurvature fraction and Bayesian model selection. The Bayes factor (models likelihood ratio) and the effective Bayesian complexity are computed for several prior ranges for the isocurvature content. I…
I discuss whether the standard cosmological models fit the WMAP data well enough to justify parameter estimation with standard assumptions. The observed quadrupole is low (but has significant foreground uncertainty) and drives weak evidence for theoretical models predicting low values, such as models with a running spectral index. Other more seriously outlying points of the WMAP power spectrum appear not to fit the expectations of simple Gaussian models very well. The effective temperature chi-squared is however acceptable on large scales. There also appears to be evidence for an anisotropic d…
In this paper we set bounds on the radiation content of the Universe and neutrino properties by using the WMAP-5 year CMB measurements complemented with most of the existing CMB and LSS data (WMAP5+All),imposing also self-consistent BBN constraints on the primordial helium abundance. We consider lepton asymmetric cosmological models parametrized by the neutrino degeneracy parameter and the variation of the relativistic degrees of freedom, due to possible other physical processes occurred between BBN and structure formation epochs. We find that WMAP5+All data provides strong bounds on helium ma…
We present a new method based on the N-point probability distribution (pdf) to study non-Gaussianity in cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps. Likelihood and Bayesian estimation are applied to a local non-linear perturbed model up to third order, characterized by a linear term which is described by a Gaussian N-pdf, and a second and third order terms which are proportional to the square and the cube of the linear one. We also explore a set of model selection techniques (the Akaike and the Bayesian Information Criteria, the minimum description length, the Bayesian Evidence and the Generalized …
We test the consistency of estimates of the non-linear coupling constant f_{NL} using non-Gaussian CMB maps generated by the method described in (Liguori, Matarrese and Moscardini 2003). This procedure to obtain non-Gaussian maps differs significantly from the method used in previous works on estimation of f_{NL}. Nevertheless, using spherical wavelets, we find results in very good agreement with (Mukherjee and Wang 2004), showing that the two ways of generating primordial non-Gaussian maps give equivalent results. Moreover, we introduce a new method for estimating the non-linear coupling cons…
The ROSAT Galactic wind observations confirm that our Galaxy launches supernova driven Galactic winds with wind speeds of about 150 km/s in the Galactic plane. Galactic winds of this strength are incompatible with current isotropic models for Cosmic Ray transport. In order to reproduce our local CRs in the presence of Galactic winds, charged CRs are required to be much more localized than in the standard isotropic GALPROP models. This requires that anisotropic diffusion is the dominant diffusion mode in the interstellar medium, particularly that the diffusion in the disk and in the halo are di…
Present cosmological data are well explained assuming purely adiabatic perturbations, but an admixture of isocurvature perturbations is also permitted. We use a Bayesian framework to compare the performance of cosmological models including isocurvature modes with the purely adiabatic case; this framework automatically and consistently penalizes models which use more parameters to fit the data. We compute the Bayesian evidence for fits to a dataset comprised of WMAP and other microwave anisotropy data, the galaxy power spectrum from 2dFGRS and SDSS, and Type Ia supernovae luminosity distances. …
We perform multi-scale non-Gaussianity detection and localization to the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) first-year data in both wavelet and real spaces. Such an analysis is facilitated by spherical wavelet transform and inverse transform techniques developed by the YAWtb team. Skewness and kurtosis as test statistics are calculated on scales from about $1^{\circ}$ to $30^{\circ}$ on the sky as well as toward different directions using anisotropic spherical Morlet wavelet (SMW). A maximum deviation from Gaussian simulations with a right tail probability of $\sim 99.9%$ is detected …
Motivated by the large-scale asymmetry observed in the cosmic microwave background sky, we consider a specific class of anisotropic cosmological models -- Bianchi type VII_h -- and compare them to the WMAP first-year data on large angular scales. Remarkably, we find evidence of a correlation which is ruled out as a chance alignment at the 3sigma level. The best fit Bianchi model corresponds to x=0.55, Omega_0=0.5, a rotation axis in the direction (l,b)=(222degr,-62degr), shear (sigma/H)_0=2.4e-10 and a right--handed vorticity (omega/H)_0=6.1e-10. Correcting for this component greatly reduces t…
The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) constraints on string inspired ''brane inflation'' are investigated. Here, the inflaton field is interpreted as the distance between two branes placed in a flux-enriched background geometry and has a Dirac-Born-Infeld (DBI) kinetic term. Our method relies on an exact numerical integration of the inflationary power spectra coupled to a Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo exploration of the parameter space. This analysis is valid for any perturbative value of the string coupling constant and of the string length, and includes a phenomenological modelling of t…
With the WMAP data we can now begin to test realistic models of inflation involving multiple scalar fields. These naturally lead to correlated adiabatic and isocurvature (entropy) perturbations with a running spectral index. We present the first full (9 parameter) likelihood analysis of double inflation with WMAP data and find that despite the extra freedom, supersymmetric hybrid potentials are strongly constrained with less than 7% correlated isocurvature component allowed when standard priors are imposed on the cosomological parameters. As a result we also find that Akaike & Bayesian model s…
We introduce a new conservative test for quantifying the consistency of two or more datasets. The test is based on the Bayesian answer to the question, ``How much more probable is it that all my data were generated from the same model system than if each dataset were generated from an independent set of model parameters?''. We make explicit the connection between evidence ratios and the differences in peak chi-squared values, the latter of which are more widely used and more cheaply calculated. Calculating evidence ratios for three cosmological datasets (recent CMB data (WMAP, ACBAR, CBI, VSA)…
Bayesian model selection is a tool to decide whether the introduction of a new parameter is warranted by data. I argue that the usual sampling statistic significance tests for a null hypothesis can be misleading, since they do not take into account the information gained through the data, when updating the prior distribution to the posterior. On the contrary, Bayesian model selection offers a quantitative implementation of Occam's razor. I introduce the Savage-Dickey density ratio, a computationally quick method to determine the Bayes factor of two nested models and hence perform model selecti…
The recent Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements indicate that there is power deficiency of the CMB anisotropies at large scales compared with the $Λ$CDM model. We have investigated the possibility of explaining such effects by a class of primordial power spectra which have infrared cutoffs close to the horizon scale. The primordial power spectrum recovered by direct deconvolution of the observed CMB angular spectrum indicates that the data prefers a sharp infrared cutoff with a localized excess (bump) just above the cutoff. We have been motivated to assess plausible extensions of sim…
We extend to large scales a method proposed in previous work that reconstructs non-parametrically the primordial power spectrum from cosmic microwave background data at high resolution. The improvement is necessary to account for the non-gaussianity of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) likelihood due primarily to cosmic variance. We assume the concordance LambdaCDM cosmology, utilise a smoothing prior and perform Monte Carlo simulations around an initial power spectrum that is scale-free and with spectral index n_s=0.97, very close to the concordance spectrum. The horizon scale f…
We constrain the form of the primordial power spectrum using Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 3-year cosmic microwave background (CMB) data (+ other high resolution CMB experiments) in addition to complementary large-scale structure (LSS) data: 2dF, SDSS, Ly-alpha forest and luminous red galaxy (LRG) data from the SDSS catalogue. We compute the comparative Bayesian evidence in addition to parameter estimates for a collection of seven models: (i) a scale invariant Harrison-Zel'dovich (H-Z) spectrum; (ii) a power-law; (iii) a running spectral index; (iv) a broken spectrum; (v) a power…
Model selection is the problem of distinguishing competing models, perhaps featuring different numbers of parameters. The statistics literature contains two distinct sets of tools, those based on information theory such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and those on Bayesian inference such as the Bayesian evidence and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The Deviance Information Criterion combines ideas from both heritages; it is readily computed from Monte Carlo posterior samples and, unlike the AIC and BIC, allows for parameter degeneracy. I describe the properties of the informati…
We confront the predicted effects of hybrid inflationary models on the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) with three years of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations. Using model selection, we compare the ability of a simple flat power-law LCDM model to describe the data to that of hybrid inflationary models involving global or local cosmic strings, or global textures. We find that it is statistically impossible to distinguish between these models: they all give a similar description of the data, the maximum ratio of the various Bayesian evidences involved being never higher th…
Recent analyses of the first-year WMAP data claim large-scale asymmetry and anisotropy of the CMBR fluctuations. We argue that the covariant and gauge invariant treatment of density fluctuations formulated by Ellis and Bruni can explain the asymmetric and anisotropic WMAP data by including the vorticity of the Universe. It appears that the spatial gradients of the density contrast are proportional to the vorticity of the Universe, thus allowing measurements and quantifications of the magnitude and axis of the possible cosmological rotation.
We compute the two-, three- and four-point correlation functions from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) first-year data, and compare these to a Monte Carlo ensemble of 5000 realizations, based on the best-fit WMAP running-index spectrum of Gaussian fluctuations. The analysis is carried out in three steps, covering small (< 72'), intermediate (< 5 degrees) and large scales (up to 180 degrees). On the largest scales our results are consistent with the previously reported hemisphere power asymmetries: the northern ecliptic hemisphere is practically devoid of large scale fluctuations…
Model selection aims to determine which theoretical models are most plausible given some data, without necessarily asking about the preferred values of the model parameters. A common model selection question is to ask when new data require introduction of an additional parameter, describing a newly-discovered physical effect. We review several model selection statistics, and then focus on use of the Bayesian evidence, which implements the usual Bayesian analysis framework at the level of models rather than parameters. We describe our CosmoNest code, which is the first computationally-efficient…
We present a Bayesian analysis of large-scale structure and cosmic microwave background data to constrain the form of the primordial power spectrum. We have extended the usual presumption of a scale invariant spectrum to include: (i) a running spectral index; (ii) a broken spectrum arising perhaps from an interruption of the potential driving inflation; (iii) a large scale cutoff in power as the first year WMAP results appear to indicate; (iv) a reconstruction of the spectrum in eight bins in wavenumber; and (v) a spectrum resulting from a cosmological model proposed by Lasenby & Doran, which …
One of the most tantalizing results from the WMAP experiment is the suggestion that the power at large scales is anomalously low when compared to the prediction of the ``standard'' Lambda-CDM model. The same anomaly, although with somewhat larger uncertainty, was also previously noted in the COBE data. In this work we discuss possible alternate models that give better fits on large scales and apply a model-comparison technique to select amongst them. We find that models with a cut off in the power spectrum at large scales are indeed preferred by data, but only by a factor of 3.6, at most, in t…
In light of the three-year data release from WMAP we re-examine the evidence for the ``Axis of Evil'' (AOE). We discover that previous statistics are not robust with respect to the data-sets available and different treatments of the galactic plane. We identify the cause of the instability and implement an alternative ``model selection'' approach. A comparison to Gaussian isotropic simulations find the features significant at the 94-98% level, depending on the particular AOE model. The Bayesian evidence finds lower significance, ranging from ``substantial'' at $Δ(\ln E)\sim 1.4$, to no evidence…
We introduce a statistical measure of the effective model complexity, called the Bayesian complexity. We demonstrate that the Bayesian complexity can be used to assess how many effective parameters a set of data can support and that it is a useful complement to the model likelihood (the evidence) in model selection questions. We apply this approach to recent measurements of cosmic microwave background anisotropies combined with the Hubble Space Telescope measurement of the Hubble parameter. Using mildly non-informative priors, we show how the 3-year WMAP data improves on the first-year data by…
We have extended the analysis of Jaffe et al. to a complete Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) study of the Bianchi type ${\rm VII_h}$ models including a dark energy density, using 1-year and 3-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. Since we perform the analysis in a Bayesian framework our entire inference is contained in the multidimensional posterior distribution from which we can extract marginalised parameter constraints and the comparative Bayesian evidence. Treating the left-handed Bianchi CMB anisotropy as a template centred upon the `cold-…
Current data exclude cosmic strings as the primary source of primordial density fluctuations. However, in a wide class of inflationary models, strings can form at later stages of inflation and have potentially detectable observational signatures. We study the constraints from WMAP and SDSS data on the fraction of primordial fluctuations sourced by local cosmic strings. The Bayesian analysis presented in this brief report is restricted to the minimal number of parameters. Yet it is useful for two reasons. It confirms the results of Pogosian et al (2003) using an alternative statistical method. …
We show that the difference between the theoretically expected and measured by WMAP amplitude of the quadrupole fluctuations of CMB can be related to the impact of the anisotropic curvature of the homogeneous universe dominated by the dark energy. In such universe the matter expansion becomes practically isotropic just after the period of inflation and only at small redshifts the anisotropic expansion is generated again by the small curvature $Ω_K=1- Ω_m- Ω_Λ\leq 10^{-4}$. For such models the possible deviations from the parameters derived for the standard cosmological model are evidently negl…
We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological observations. We compare the frequentist and Bayesian bounds on the effective electron neutrino mass m_beta which the KATRIN neutrino mass experiment is expected to obtain, using both an analytical likelihood function and Monte Carlo simulations of KATRIN. Assuming a uniform prior in m_beta, we find that a null result yields an upper bound of about 0.17 eV at 90% confidence in the Bayesian analysis, to be compared with the frequentist KATRIN reference value of 0.20 eV. This is a signif…
We consider the issue of hemispherical power asymmetry in the three-year WMAP data, adopting a previously introduced modulation framework. Computing both frequentist probabilities and Bayesian evidences, we find that the model consisiting of an isotropic CMB sky modulated by a dipole field, gives a substantially better fit to the observations than the purely isotropic model, even when accounting for the larger prior volume. For the ILC map, the Bayesian log-evidence difference is ~1.8 in favour of the modulated model, and the raw improvement in maximum log-likelihood is 6.1. The best-fit modul…
A recent study of the rotation of the plane of polarization of light from 160 cosmological sources claims to find significant evidence for cosmological anisotropy. We point out methodological weaknesses of that study, and reanalyze the same data using Bayesian methods that overcome these problems. We find that the data always favor isotropic models for the distribution of observed polarizations over counterparts that have a cosmological anisotropy of the type advocated in the earlier study. Although anisotropic models are not completely ruled out, the data put strong lower limits on the length…
