基于贝叶斯信息熵的空间显式模型评估技术研究
Developing Bayesian Information Entropy-based Techniques for Spatially Explicit Model Assessment
摘要：
本文的目的是探索和发展先进的空间贝叶斯评估方法和技术的土地利用建模。本文提供了一个全面的指导，评估额外的信息熵值的模型预测在空间上明确的知识域，并提出了一些替代的度量和指标，从模拟比赛中提取高阶信息动态。在威斯康星州东南部（SEWI）的七个县的研究区已被用来模拟和评估历史的土地利用变化（1963-1990年）的准确性，使用人工神经网络模拟的土地转换模型（LTM）。分析的使用和度量的性能有助于：（a）理解和学习模型运行如何适应景观中存在和不存在过渡的不同组合，而不仅仅是模型如何适应我们的给定数据;（b）导出（估计）我们期望模型在不完整信息和测量存在下评估的理论准确性;（c）通过比较各次模拟运行的结果，了解不确定性在模拟和模型估计中的空间明确作用和模式;（变化与不变）对模型性能的影响，以及空间驱动因素和变量对模型解释价值的贡献;以及（e）比较不同空间分辨率尺度下的信息不确定性测量。
英文摘要：
The aim of this paper is to explore and develop advanced spatial Bayesian assessment methods and techniques for land use modeling. The paper provides a comprehensive guide for assessing additional informational entropy value of model predictions at the spatially explicit domain of knowledge, and proposes a few alternative metrics and indicators for extracting higher-order information dynamics from simulation tournaments. A seven-county study area in South-Eastern Wisconsin (SEWI) has been used to simulate and assess the accuracy of historical land use changes (1963-1990) using artificial neural network simulations of the Land Transformation Model (LTM). The use of the analysis and the performance of the metrics helps: (a) understand and learn how well the model runs fits to different combinations of presence and absence of transitions in a landscape, not simply how well the model fits our given data; (b) derive (estimate) a theoretical accuracy that we would expect a model to assess under the presence of incomplete information and measurement; (c) understand the spatially explicit role and patterns of uncertainty in simulations and model estimations, by comparing results across simulation runs; (d) compare the significance or estimation contribution of transitional presence and absence (change versus no change) to model performance, and the contribution of the spatial drivers and variables to the explanatory value of our model; and (e) compare measurements of informational uncertainty at different scales of spatial resolution.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
