2006-2008年石油泡沫及以后
The 2006-2008 Oil Bubble and Beyond
摘要：
我们对美元和其他主要货币的石油价格进行了分析，诊断出不可持续的快于指数的行为。这支持了一种假设，即最近的油价上涨被泡沫式扩张期间的投机行为放大了。我们还试图解开隐藏在两个主要机构，美国能源信息署（EIA）和国际能源署（IEA）报告的石油供需数据中的信息。我们认为，发现EIA和IEA的数字之间的差异越来越大，提供了一个衡量的估计误差。我们将IEA和EIA之间的差异解释为不确定性的标志，而不是向供应限制制度的明确过渡，没有比不确定性更好的燃料来促进投机！
英文摘要：
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation!
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
