负油价泡沫可能在2016年3月至5月破裂。基于对数周期动力学规律的预测
Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics
摘要：
对布伦特油价动态进行对数周期参数化的数据分析，可以（非常近似地）估计布伦特油价暴跌达到绝对最低水平（对应于所谓的奇点）的日期，之后将出现相当迅速的反弹，而2014年年中开始的油价加速下跌将结束。这可能发生在2016年3月24日至5月15日之间。对最近的负“子泡沫”破裂的日期进行了类似的估计（尽管是更准确的估计），这可能发生在2016年1月19日至2月2日之间（重要的是，这一估计将允许验证最近几天的预测的稳健性）。然而，这并不意味着一个新的不间断的全球增长的开始-下降将很快继续，打破新的“反记录”。下跌只有在2016年3月24日至5月15日之间的某个时间点通过上述主要负泡沫奇点后才会最终停止（当然，如果石油市场仍然由投机者支配，并且宏观参与者没有进行大规模干预）。重要的是，我们的计算还表明，在2014年年中之后，我们在世界石油市场上处理的不是反泡沫（当价格崩溃在一个阻尼和几乎不可阻挡的状态下进行时），而是一个负泡沫，当价格以加速模式崩溃时，可能会出现特别强大的崩溃，在奇点附近产生特别强烈的不稳定影响。另一方面，宏观行为者的行动可以更好地操纵负泡沫。
英文摘要：
Data analysis with log-periodical parametrization of the Brent oil price dynamics has allowed to estimate (very approximately) the date when the dashing collapse of the Brent oil price will achieve the absolute minimum level (corresponding to the so-called singularity point), after which there will occur a rather rapid rebound, whereas the accelerating fall of the oil prices which started in mid-2014 will come to an end. This is likely to happen in the period between March, 24th and May, 15th, 2016. An analogous estimate (though a more exact one) was made for the date of the burst of the nearest negative "sub-bubble", which is likely to occur between 19.01 and 02.02.2016 (importantly, this estimate will allow to verify the robustness of the developed forecast in the very nearest days). However, this will not mean a start of a new uninterrupted global growth - the fall will soon continue, breaking new "anti-records". The fall will only finally stop after passing the abovementioned point of the main negative bubble singularity somewhere between March 24th and May 15th, 2016 (if, of course, the oil market remains at the disposal of speculators, and no massive interventions of macro actors are made). Importantly, our calculations have also shown that after mid-2014 we are dealing not with an antibubble (when price collapse goes on in a damped and almost unstoppable regime) in the world oil market, but with a negative bubble, when prices collapse in an accelerated mode, and there can be particularly powerful collapses with particularly strong destabilizing effect near the singularity point. On the other hand, negative bubbles can be better manipulated by the actions of the macro actors.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
