We derive the exact asymptotics of $P(\sup_{u\leq t}X(u) > x)$ if $x$ and $t$ tend to infinity with $x/t$ constant, for a Lévy process $X$ that admits exponential moments. The proof is based on a renewal argument and a two-dimensional renewal theorem of Höglund (1990).
We study the asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Cramér-Lundberg model with a modified notion of ruin. The modification is as follows. If the portfolio becomes negative, the asset is not immediately declared ruined but may survive due to certain mechanisms. Under a rather general assumption on the mechanism - satisfied by most such modified models from the literature - we study the relation of the asymptotics of the modified ruin probability to the classical ruin probability. This is done under the Cramér condition as well as for subexponential integrated claim sizes.
In this paper we analyze a Lévy process reflected at a general (possibly random) barrier. For this process we prove Central Limit Theorem for the first passage time. We also give the finite-time first passage probability asymptotics.
We investigate the upper tail probabilities of the all-time maximum of a stable Lévy process with a power negative drift. The asymptotic behaviour is shown to be exponential in the spectrally negative case and polynomial otherwise, with explicit exponents and constants. Analogous results are obtained, at a less precise level, for the fractionally integrated stable Lévy process. We also study the lower tail probabilities of the integrated stable Lévy process in the presence of a power positive drift.
In this paper, we study Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with Markov modulation, whose parameters depend on an external underlying two-state Markov process. Conditional mean and variance of such processes under given modulation are investigated from the point of view of the first passage probabilities and invariant measures. It is also studied the limiting behaviour under scaling conditions similar to Kac's scaling.
The classical Cramér-Lundberg risk process models the ruin probability of an insurance company experiencing an incoming cash flow - the premium income, and an outgoing cash flow - the claims. From a system's viewpoint, the web of insurance agents and risk objects can be represented by a bipartite network. In such a bipartite network setting, it has been shown that joint ruin of a group of agents may be avoided even if individual agents would experience ruin in the classical Cramér-Lundberg model. This paper describes and examines a phase transition phenomenon for these ruin probabilities.
Suppose that S is an asymptotically stable random walk with norming sequence c_{n} and that T_{x} is the time that S first enters (x,\inf), where x\ge 0. The asymptotic behaviour of P(T_0=n) has been described in a recent paper of Vatutin and Wachtel, \cite{vw}, and here we build on that result to give three estimates for P(T_{x}=n), which hold uniformly as n\to\inf in the regions x=o(c_{n}), x=O(c_{n}), and x/c_{n}\to\inf, respectively.
We consider the boundary crossing problem for time-homogeneous diffusions and general curvilinear boundaries. Bounds are derived for the approximation error of the one-sided (upper) boundary crossing probability when replacing the original boundary by a different one. In doing so we establish the existence of the first-passage time density and provide an upper bound for this function. In the case of processes with diffusion interval equal to whole real line this is extended to a lower bound, as well as bounds for the first crossing time of a lower boundary. An extension to some time-inhomogene…
The existence of moments of first downward passage times of a spectrally negative Lévy process is governed by the general dynamics of the Lévy process, i.e. whether the Lévy process is drifting to $+\infty$, $-\infty$ or oscillates. Whenever the Lévy process drifts to $+\infty$, we prove that the $κ$-th moment of the first passage time (conditioned to be finite) exists if and only if the $(κ+1)$-th moment of the Lévy jump measure exists. This generalises a result shown earlier by Delbaen for Cramér-Lundberg risk processes \cite{Delbaen1990}. Whenever the Lévy process drifts to $-\infty$, we pr…
We continue the study of the compound renewal processes (c.r.p.), where the moment Cramer's condition holds (see [1]-[10], where the study of c.r.p. was started). In the paper arithmetic c.r.p. Z(n) are studied. In such processes random vector ξ = (τ,ζ) has the arithmetic distribution, where τ > 0 defines the distance between jumps, ζ defines the values of jumps. For this processes the fine asymptotics in the local limit theorem for probabilities P(Z(n) = x) has been obtained in Cramer's deviation region of x $\in$ Z. In [6]-[10] the similar problem has been solved for non-lattice c.r.p., when…
Let $S_n$ be partial sums of an i.i.d. sequence $\{X_i\}$. We assume that $\mathbb{E} X_1 <0$ and $\mathbb{P}[X_1>0]>0$. In this paper we study the first passage time $$ τ_u = \inf\{n:\; S_n > u\}. $$ The classical Cramér's estimate of the ruin probability says that $$ \mathbb{P}[τ_u<\infty] \sim C e^{-α_0 u}\quad \text{as } u\to \infty, $$ for some parameter $α_0$. The aim of the paper is to describe precise large deviations of the first crossing by $S_n$ a linear boundary, more precisely for a fixed parameter $ρ$ we study asymptotic behavior of $\mathbb{P}\left[τ_u = \lfloor u/ρ\rfloor \righ…
This article describes a new Monte Carlo method for the evaluation of the orthant probabilities by sampling first passage times of a non-singular Gaussian discrete time-series across an absorbing boundary. This procedure makes use of a simulation of several time-series sample paths, aiming to record their first crossing instants. Thus, the computation of the orthant probabilities is traced back to the accurate simulation of a non-singular Gaussian discrete-time series. Moreover, if the simulation is also efficient, this method is shown to be more speedy than the others proposed in the literatu…
A random walk in $Z_+^2$ spatially homogeneous in the interior, absorbed at the axes, starting from an arbitrary point $(i_0,j_0)$ and with step probabilities drawn on Figure 1 is considered. The trivariate generating function of probabilities that the random walk hits a given point $(i,j)\in Z_+^2$ at a given time $k\geq 0$ is made explicit. Probabilities of absorption at a given time $k$ and at a given axis are found, and their precise asymptotic is derived as the time $k\to\infty$. The equivalence of two typical ways of conditioning this random walk to never reach the axes is established. T…
The spatial symmetry property of truncated birth-death processes studied in Di Crescenzo [6] is extended to a wider family of continuous-time Markov chains. We show that it yields simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities, and apply it to a bilateral birth-death process with jumps. It is finally proved that this symmetry property is preserved within the family of strongly similar Markov chains.
Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often need to be refined via calculation of a prefactor. Here it is shown how to perform these computations in practice. Specifically, sharp asymptotic estimates are derived for expectations, probabilities, and mean first passage times in a form that is geared towards numerical purposes: they require solving well-posed matrix Riccati equations involving the minimize…
We propose an approach to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general one-dimensional diffusion processes, and derive the convergence rate for this approximation scheme. There results are based on the explicit expression of the Laplace transforms of the first passage densities for diffusions with piecewise linear drifts. The proposed method is applied to a reliability problem where the standard degradation model based on Wiener process is extended to diffusion processes with piecewise linear drifts.
Let {X_n,n\geq0} be a Markov chain on a general state space X with transition probability P and stationary probability π. Suppose an additive component S_n takes values in the real line R and is adjoined to the chain such that {(X_n,S_n),n\geq0} is a Markov random walk. In this paper, we prove a uniform Markov renewal theorem with an estimate on the rate of convergence. This result is applied to boundary crossing problems for {(X_n,S_n),n\geq0}. To be more precise, for given b\geq0, define the stopping time τ=τ(b)=inf{n:S_n>b}. When a drift μof the random walk S_n is 0, we derive a one-term Ed…
We consider the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to efficiently simulate the ruin probability in this situation. The resulting estimators perform well for both small and large initial capital. We quantify the variance reduction as well as the efficiency gain of our method over another fast standard technique based on the classical Pollaczek-Khinchine formula. We provide a numerical example to illustrate the performance…
We analyze the geometrical structure of the passage times in the last passage percolation model. Viewing the passage time as a piecewise linear function of the weights we determine the domains of the various pieces, which are the subsets of the weight space that make a given path the longest one. We focus on the case when all weights are assumed to be positive, and as a result each domain is a pointed polyhedral cone. We determine the extreme rays, facets, and two-dimensional faces of each cone, and also review a well-known simplicial decomposition of the maximal cones via the so-called order …
For the exactly solvable model of exponential last passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^2$, consider the geodesic $Γ_n$ joining $(0,0)$ and $(n,n)$ for large $n$. It is well known that the transversal fluctuation of $Γ_n$ around the line $x=y$ is $n^{2/3+o(1)}$ with high probability. We obtain the exponent governing the decay of the small ball probability for $Γ_{n}$ and establish that for small $δ$, the probability that $Γ_{n}$ is contained in a strip of width $δn^{2/3}$ around the diagonal is $\exp (-Θ(δ^{-3/2}))$ uniformly in high $n$. We also obtain optimal small deviation estimates for the …
We construct a stochastic fluid process with an underlying piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) akin to the one used in the construction of the rational arrival process (RAP), which we call the RAP-modulated fluid process. As opposed to the classic stochastic fluid process driven by a Markov jump process, the underlying PDMP of a RAP-modulated fluid process has a continuous state space and is driven by matrix parameters which may not be related to an intensity matrix. Through novel techniques we show how well-known formulae associated to the classic stochastic fluid process, such as f…
We consider the standard first passage percolation model in $\mathbb{Z}^d$ for $d\geq 2$. We are interested in two quantities, the maximal flow $τ$ between the lower half and the upper half of the box, and the maximal flow $ϕ$ between the top and the bottom of the box. A standard subadditive argument yields the law of large numbers for $τ$ in rational directions. Kesten and Zhang have proved the law of large numbers for $τ$ and $ϕ$ when the sides of the box are parallel to the coordinate hyperplanes: the two variables grow linearly with the surface $s$ of the basis of the box, with the same de…
Hybrid stochastic differential equations are a useful tool to model continuously varying stochastic systems which are modulated by a random environment that may depend on the system state itself. In this paper, we establish the pathwise convergence of the solutions to hybrid stochastic differential equations via space-grid discretizations. While time-grid discretizations are a classical approach for simulation purposes, our space-grid discretization provides a link with multi-regime Markov modulated Brownian motions, leading to computational tractability. We exploit our convergence result to o…
A natural extension of a right-continuous integer-valued random walk is one which can jump to the right by one or two units. First passage times above a given fixed level then admit a tractable Laplace transform (probability generating function). Explicit expressions for the probabilities that the respective overshoots are either $0$ or $1$, according as the random walk crosses a given level for the first time either continuously or not, also obtain. An interesting non-obvious observation, which follows from the analysis, is that any such (non-degenerate) random walk will, eventually in $n\in …
We consider a discrete-time random walk on the nodes of an unbounded hexagonal lattice. We determine the probability generating functions, the transition probabilities and the relevant moments. The convergence of the stochastic process to a 2-dimensional Brownian motion is also discussed. Furthermore, we obtain some results on its asymptotic behavior making use of large deviation theory. Finally, we investigate the first-passage-time problem of the random walk through a vertical straight-line. Under suitable symmetry assumptions we are able to determine the first-passage-time probabilities in …
Percolation with edge-passage probability p and first-passage percolation are studied for the n-cube B_n ={0,1}^n with nearest neighbor edges. For oriented and unoriented percolation, p=e/n and p=1/n are the respective critical probabilities. For oriented first-passage percolation with i.i.d. edge-passage times having a density of 1 near the origin, the percolation time (time to reach the opposite corner of the cube) converges in probability to 1 as n->infty. This resolves a conjecture of David Aldous. When the edge-passage distribution is standard exponential, the (smaller) percolation time f…
We consider first passage times $τ_u = \inf\{n:\; Y_n>u\}$ for the perpetuity sequence $$ Y_n = B_1 + A_1 B_2 + \cdots + (A_1\ldots A_{n-1})B_n, $$ where $(A_n,B_n)$ are i.i.d. random variables with values in ${\mathbb R} ^+\times {\mathbb R}$. Recently, a number of limit theorems related to $τ_u$ were proved including the law of large numbers, the central limit theorem and large deviations theorems. We obtain a precise asymptotics of the sequence ${\mathbb P}[τ_u = \log u/ρ]$, $ρ>0$, $u\to \infty $ which considerably improves the previous results. There, probabilities ${\mathbb P}[τ_u \in I_u…
This article deals with the asymptotic behaviour as $t\to +\infty$ of the survival function $P[T > t],$ where $T$ is the first passage time above a non negative level of a random process starting from zero. In many cases of physical significance, the behaviour is of the type $P[T > t]=t^{-θ+ o(1)}$ for a known or unknown positive parameter $θ$ which is called a persistence exponent. The problem is well understood for random walks or Lévy processes but becomes more difficult for integrals of such processes, which are more related to physics. We survey recent results and open problems in this fi…
In this paper, we establish a relationship between the asymptotic form of conditional boundary crossing probabilities and first passage time densities for diffusion processes. Namely, we show that, under broad assumptions, the first crossing time density of a general curvilinear boundary by a general time-homogeneous diffusion process has a product-form, the factors being the transition density of the process and the coefficient of the leading term in the asymptotic representation of the non-crossing probability of the boundary by the respective diffusion bridge (as the end-point of the bridge…
We investigate first passage percolation on inhomogeneous random graphs. The random graph model G(n,kappa) we study is the model introduced by Bollobás, Janson and Riordan, where each vertex has a type from a type space S and edge probabilities are independent, but depending on the types of the end vertices. Each edge is given an independent exponential weight. We determine the distribution of the weight of the shortest path between uniformly chosen vertices in the giant component and show that the hopcount, i.e. the number of edges on this minimal weight path, properly normalized follows a ce…
A method yielding simple relationships among bilateral birth-and-death processes is outlined. This allows one to relate birth and death rates of two processes in such a way that their transition probabilities, first-passage-time densities and ultimate crossing probabilities are mutually related by some product-form expressions.
There is a well-known sequence of constants c_n describing the growth of supercritical Galton-Watson processes Z_n. With 'lower deviation probabilities' we refer to P(Z_n=k_n) with k_n=o(c_n) as n increases. We give a detailed picture of the asymptotic behavior of such lower deviation probabilities. This complements and corrects results known from the literature concerning special cases. Knowledge on lower deviation probabilities is needed to describe large deviations of the ratio Z_{n+1}/Z_n. The latter are important in statistical inference to estimate the offspring mean. For our proofs, we …
We study multidimensional Cramér-Lundberg risk processes where agents, located on a large sparse network, receive losses form their neighbors. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, we introduce classification of agents according to an arbitrary countable set of types. The ruin of any agent triggers losses for all of its neighbours. We consider the case when the loss arrival process induced by the ensemble of ruined agents follows a Poisson process with general intensity function that scales with the network size. When the size of the network goes to infinity, we provide explicit ruin pr…
For a multivariate random walk with i.i.d. jumps satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a mean vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant that is being translated to infinity along a fixed vector with positive components. This problem is motivated by and extends results from a paper by F. Avram et al. (2008) on a two-dimensional risk process. Our approach combines the large deviation techniques from a recent series of papers by A. Borovkov and A. Mogulskii with new auxiliary constructions, whic…
We consider open quantum walks on a graph, and consider the random variables defined as the passage time and number of visits to a given point of the graph. We study in particular the probability that the passage time is finite, the expectation of that passage time, and the expectation of the number of visits, and discuss the notion of recurrence for open quantum walks. We also study exit times and exit probabilities from a finite domain, and use them to solve Dirichlet problems and to determine harmonic measures. We consider in particular the case of irreducible open quantum walks. The result…
In this paper we review some results on time-homogeneous birth-death processes. Specifically, for truncated birth-death processes with two absorbing or two reflecting endpoints, we recall the necessary and sufficient conditions on the transition rates such that the transition probabilities satisfy a spatial symmetry relation. The latter leads to simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities. This approach is thus thoroughly extended to the case of bilateral birth-death processes, even in the presence of catastrophes, and to the case of a two-dimensio…
This paper is concerned with the behaviour of a Lévy process when it crosses over a positive level, $u$, starting from 0, both as $u$ becomes large and as $u$ becomes small. Our main focus is on the time, $τ_u$, it takes the process to transit above the level, and in particular, on the {\it stability} of this passage time; thus, essentially, whether or not $τ_u$ behaves linearly as $u\dto 0$ or $u\to\infty$. We also consider conditional stability of $τ_u$ when the process drifts to $-\infty$, a.s. This provides information relevant to quantities associated with the ruin of an insurance risk pr…
A popular method to compute first-passage probabilities in continuous-time Markov chains is by numerically inverting their Laplace transforms. Past decades, the scientific computing community has developed excellent numerical methods for solving problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), making the availability of a Laplace transform not necessary here for computational purposes. In this study we demonstrate that numerical PDE problem solvers are suitable for computing first passage times, and can be very efficient for this purpose. By doing extensive computational experiments…
Research in psychology and neuroscience has successfully modeled decision making as a process of noisy evidence accumulation to a decision bound. While there are several variants and implementations of this idea, the majority of these models make use of a noisy accumulation between two absorbing boundaries. A common assumption of these models is that decision parameters, e.g., the rate of accumulation (drift rate), remain fixed over the course of a decision, allowing the derivation of analytic formulas for the probabilities of hitting the upper or lower decision threshold, and the mean decisio…
Exact collective first-passage statistics of N trail-interacting walkers
Laboratoire Jean Perrin, CNRS/Sorbonne Université(让·佩兰实验室,法国国家科学研究中心/索邦大学);Collège de France(法兰西公学院);Laboratoire de Physique Théorique de la Matière Condensée, CNRS/Sorbonne Université(凝聚态物质理论物理实验室,法国国家科学研究中心/索邦大学)
For a continuous-time Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process, $X$, with immigration and culling, $0$ as an absorbing state, call $X^q$ the process that results from killing $X$ at rate $q\in (0,\infty)$, followed by stopping it on extinction or explosion. Then an explicit identification of the relevant harmonic functions of $X^q$ allows to determine the Laplace transforms (at argument $q$) of the first passage times downwards and of the explosion time for $X$. Strictly speaking, this is accomplished only when the killing rate $q$ is sufficiently large (but always when the branching mechanism is not su…
Let $τ(x)$ be the epoch of first entry into the interval $(x,\infty)$, $x>0$, of the reflected process $Y$ of a Lévy process $X$, and define the overshoot $Z(x) = Y(τ(x))-x$ and undershoot $z(x) = x - Y(τ(x)-)$ of $Y$ at the first-passage time over the level $x$. In this paper we establish, separately under the Cramér and positive drift assumptions, the existence of the weak limit of $(z(x), Z(x))$ as $x$ tends to infinity and provide explicit formulae for their joint CDFs in terms of the Lévy measure of $X$ and the renewal measure of the dual of $X$. We apply our results to analyse the behavi…
Let $m_{ij}$ be the mean first passage time from state $i$ to state $j$ in an $n$-state ergodic homogeneous Markov chain with transition matrix $T$. Let $G$ be the weighted digraph without loops whose vertex set coincides with the set of states of the Markov chain and arc weights are equal to the corresponding transition probabilities. We give a graph-theoretic interpretation to $m_{ij}$. Namely, We show that $m_{ij}=f_{ij}/q_j$ if $i\ne j$ and $m_{ij}=1/\tilde q_j$ if $i=j$, where $f_{ij}$ is the total weight of 2-tree spanning converging forests in $G$ that have one tree containing $i$ and t…
This monograph resolves - in a dense class of cases - several open problems concerning geodesics in i.i.d. first-passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. Our primary interest is in the empirical measures of edge-weights observed along geodesics from $0$ to $nξ$, where $ξ$ is a fixed unit vector. For various dense families of edge-weight distributions, we prove that these empirical measures converge weakly to a deterministic limit as $n\to\infty$, answering a question of Hoffman. These families include arbitrarily small $L^\infty$-perturbations of any given distribution, almost every finitely sup…
For first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ with i.i.d. bounded edge weights, we consider the upper tail large deviation event; i.e., the rare situation where the first passage time between two points at distance $n$, is macroscopically larger than typical. It was shown by Kesten (1986) that the probability of this event decays as $\exp (-Θ(n^2))$. However the question of existence of the rate function i.e., whether the log-probability normalized by $n^2$ tends to a limit, had remained open. We show that under some additional mild regularity assumption on the passage time distribution, the…
This paper uses Lie symmetry methods to analyze boundary crossing probabilities for a large class of diffusion processes. We show that if Fokker--Planck--Kolmogorov equation has non-trivial Lie symmetry, then boundary crossing identity exists and depends only on parameters of process and symmetry. For time-homogeneous diffusion processes we found necessary and sufficient conditions of symmetries' existence. This paper shows that if drift function satisfy one of a family of Ricatti equations, then the problem has nontrivial Lie symmetries. For each case we present symmetries in explicit form. B…
We survey recent results on first-passage processes in unbounded cones and their applications to ordering of particles undergoing Brownian motion in one dimension. We first discuss the survival probability S(t) that a diffusing particle, in arbitrary spatial dimension, remains inside a conical domain up to time t. In general, this quantity decays algebraically S ~ t^{-beta} in the long-time limit. The exponent beta depends on the opening angle of the cone and the spatial dimension, and it is root of a transcendental equation involving the associated Legendre functions. The exponent becomes a f…