用Halo CME的非对称锥模式预报空间天气
Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs
摘要：
晕日冕物质抛射（HCME）是最严重的地磁暴。预测它们的地球效应和到达地球附近的旅行时间对于预测空间天气至关重要。遗憾的是，日冕观测受投影影响，不能提供日冕物质抛射的真实特征。最近，Michalek（2006，{ \it Solar Phys.}，{ \bf 237}，101）发展了一种非对称锥模型，以获得HCME的空间速度、宽度和源位置。我们应用这种技术，以获得所有正面HCME的参数观测SOHO/LASCO实验期间，从2001年初到2002年底（太阳活动周期23）。这些参数用于空间天气预报。我们的研究确定，空间速度与地球附近的HCME的旅行时间以及与地磁扰动相关的幅度密切相关。
英文摘要：
Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\it Solar Phys.}, {\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.
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