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arXiv 0708.0177math.STstat.TH
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渐近极小极大贝叶斯预测密度

Asymptotically minimax Bayes predictive densities

Mihaela Aslan

摘要:

给定一个随机样本的分布密度函数取决于一个未知的参数$θ$,我们感兴趣的是准确地估计真正的参数密度函数在未来的观察,从同一分布。贝叶斯预测密度估计与Kullback-Leibler损失函数$D(f_θ||{\hat{f}})=\int{f_θ \log{(f_θ/ hat{f})}}$的渐近风险是用来检查各种方式选择先验分布的主要类型的选择研究是极大极小。我们寻求渐近最不利的预测密度,相应的渐近风险是极大极小。一个类似于斯坦因悖论的结果,估计正常的平均值的最大似然持有的多元位置家庭的情况下,一致的前:当模型的维数至少是3,Jeffreys先验是极大极小,但不可接受的。Jeffreys先验对一维和二维定位问题都是可容许的和极大极小的。

英文摘要:

Given a random sample from a distribution with density function that depends on an unknown parameter $θ$, we are interested in accurately estimating the true parametric density function at a future observation from the same distribution. The asymptotic risk of Bayes predictive density estimates with Kullback--Leibler loss function $D(f_θ||{\hat{f}})=\int{f_θ \log{(f_θ/ hat{f})}}$ is used to examine various ways of choosing prior distributions; the principal type of choice studied is minimax. We seek asymptotically least favorable predictive densities for which the corresponding asymptotic risk is minimax. A result resembling Stein's paradox for estimating normal means by the maximum likelihood holds for the uniform prior in the multivariate location family case: when the dimensionality of the model is at least three, the Jeffreys prior is minimax, though inadmissible. The Jeffreys prior is both admissible and minimax for one- and two-dimensional location problems.

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