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arXiv 0705.1209cs.AI
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冲突管理的人工智能

Artificial Intelligence for Conflict Management

University of Kent(肯特大学);University of the Witwatersrand(威特沃特斯兰德大学)

E. Habtemariam, T. Marwala, M. Lagazio

摘要:

军事化冲突是对社会产生重大影响的风险之一。军事化的国家间争端是国家间相互作用的结果,其结果要么是和平,要么是冲突。有效预测国家间冲突的可能性是决策者的重要决策支持工具。在先前的研究中,已经实现了神经网络(NN)来预测MID。支持向量机(SVMs)已被证明是非常好的预测技术,并介绍了在这项研究中的MID的预测和比较神经网络。结果表明,支持向量机预测MID比神经网络,而神经网络提供了更一致的,更容易解释的敏感性分析比支持向量机。

英文摘要:

Militarised conflict is one of the risks that have a significant impact on society. Militarised Interstate Dispute (MID) is defined as an outcome of interstate interactions, which result on either peace or conflict. Effective prediction of the possibility of conflict between states is an important decision support tool for policy makers. In a previous research, neural networks (NNs) have been implemented to predict the MID. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have proven to be very good prediction techniques and are introduced for the prediction of MIDs in this study and compared to neural networks. The results show that SVMs predict MID better than NNs while NNs give more consistent and easy to interpret sensitivity analysis than SVMs.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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