The telegraph process models a random motion with finite velocity and it is usually proposed as an alternative to diffusion models. The process describes the position of a particle moving on the real line, alternatively with constant velocity $+ v$ or $-v$. The changes of direction are governed by an homogeneous Poisson process with rate $λ>0.$ In this paper, we consider a change point estimation problem for the rate of the underlying Poisson process by means of least squares method. The consistency and the rate of convergence for the change point estimator are obtained and its asymptotic distribution is derived. Applications to real data are also presented.
The problem of parameter estimation by the observations of the two-state telegraph process in the presence of white Gaussian noise is considered. The properties of estimator of the method of moments are described in the asymptotics of large samples. Then this estimator is used as preliminary one to construct the one-step MLE-process, which provides the asymptotically normal and asymptotically efficient estimation of the unknown parameters.
We consider the robust adaptive nonparametric estimation problem for a periodic function observed in the framework of a continuous time regression model with semimartingale noises.
A method of estimating the joint probability mass function of a pair of discrete random variables is described. This estimator is used to construct the conditional Shannon-Réyni-Tsallis entropies estimates. From there almost sure rates of convergence and asymptotic normality are established. The theorical results are validated by simulations.
We refer by threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck to a continuous-time threshold autoregressive process. It follows the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck dynamics when above or below a fixed level, yet at this level (threshold) its coefficients can be discontinuous. We discuss (quasi)-maximum likelihood estimation of the drift parameters, both assuming continuous and discrete time observations. In the ergodic case, we derive consistency and speed of convergence of these estimators in long time and high frequency. Based on these results, we develop a test for the presence of a threshold in the dynamics. Finally, we ap…
Parameter estimation for a parabolic linear stochastic partial differential equation in one space dimension is studied observing the solution field on a discrete grid in a fixed bounded domain. Considering an infill asymptotic regime in both coordinates, we prove central limit theorems for realized quadratic variations based on temporal and spatial increments as well as on double increments in time and space. Resulting method of moments estimators for the diffusivity and the volatility parameter inherit the asymptotic normality and can be constructed robustly with respect to the sampling frequ…
We characterize the existence of the maximum likelihood estimator for discrete exponential families. Our criterion is simple to apply as we show in various settings, most notably for exponential models of random graphs. As an application, we point out the size of independent identically distributed samples for which the maximum likelihood estimator exists with high probability.
We consider a parameter estimation problem for one dimensional stochastic heat equations, when data is sampled discretely in time or spatial component. We prove that, the real valued parameter next to the Laplacian (the drift), and the constant parameter in front of the noise (the volatility) can be consistently estimated under somewhat surprisingly minimal information. Namely, it is enough to observe the solution at a fixed time and on a discrete spatial grid, or at a fixed space point and at discrete time instances of a finite interval, assuming that the mesh-size goes to zero. The proposed …
We propose a simple recursive data-based partitioning scheme which produces piecewise-constant or piecewise-linear density estimates on intervals, and show how this scheme can determine the optimal $L_1$ minimax rate for some discrete nonparametric classes.
We describe a four-level hierarchy mapping both all discrete estimation problems and all estimators on these problems, such that the hierarchy describes each estimator's consistency guarantees on each problem class. We show that no estimator is consistent for all estimation problems, but that some estimators, such as Maximum A Posteriori, are consistent for the widest possible class of discrete estimation problems. For Maximum Likelihood and Approximate Maximum Likelihood estimators we show that they do not provide consistency on as wide a class, but define a sub-class of problems characterise…
In this paper, different strands of literature are combined in order to obtain algorithms for semi-parametric estimation of discrete choice models that include the modelling of unobserved heterogeneity by using mixing distributions for the parameters defining the preferences. The models use the theory on non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation (NP-MLE) that has been developed for general mixing models. The expectation-maximization (EM) techniques used in the NP-MLE literature are combined with strategies for choosing appropriate approximating models using adaptive grid techniques. \\ Join…
我们研究并比较了离散单调分布的三种估计：（a）（原始）经验估计;（b）“重排方法”估计;（c）最大似然估计。我们表明，最大似然估计严格占主导地位的重排和经验估计的情况下，当分布的恒定区间。例如，当分布在$\{0, ..., y \}$上是均匀分布时，重排方法估计量（平方$\ell_2$范数）的渐近风险是$y/(y+1)$，而MLE的渐近风险是$(\log y)/(y+1)$阶。对于严格递减分布，估计量是渐近等价的。
Assuming that a threshold Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate the parameters. Our theoretical basis is the celebrated ergodic theorem. To use this theorem we need to find the explicit form of the invariant measure. With the sampling time step arbitrarily fixed, we prove the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimators as the sample size tends to infinity.
Estimation of the service time distribution in the discrete-time $GI/G/\infty$-queue based solely on information on the arrival and departure processes is considered. The focus is put on the estimation approach via the so called "sequence of differences". Existing results for this approach are substantially extended by proving a functional central limit theorem for the resultant estimator. Here, the underlying function space is taken to be the space of sequences converging to zero. The moving block bootstrap technique is considered for the estimation of the resultant covariance kernel and is s…
Assuming that a reflected Ornstein-Uhlenbeck state process is observed at discrete time instants, we propose generalized moment estimators to estimate all drift and diffusion parameters via the celebrated ergodic theorem. With the sampling time step h > 0 arbitrarily fixed, we prove the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of our estimators as the sampling size n tends to infinity. This provides a complete solution to an open problem left in Hu et al. [5].
In this article, a new natural discrete analog of the one parameter polynomial exponential(OPPE) distribution as a mixture of a number of negative binomial distributions has been proposed and is called as a natural discrete one parameter polynomial exponential (NDOPPE) distribution. This distribution is a generalized version of natural discrete Lindley (NDL) distribution, proposed and studied by Ahmed and Afify (2019). Two estimators viz., MLE and UMVUE of the PMF and the CDF of a NDOPPE distribution have been derived. The estimators have been compared with respect to their MSEs. Simulation st…
This paper deals with the parametric inference for integrated signals embedded in an additive Gaussian noise and observed at deterministic discrete instants which are not necessarily equidistant. The unknown parameter is multidimensional and compounded of a signal-of-interest parameter and a variance parameter of the noise. We state the consistency and the minimax efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator and of the Bayesian estimator when the time of observation tends to $\infty$ and the delays between two consecutive observations tend to 0 or are only bounded. The class of signals in co…
In this paper we provide the asymptotic theory of the general of $ϕ$-divergences measures, which include the most common divergence measures : Renyi and Tsallis families and the Kullback-Leibler measure. We are interested in divergence measures in the discrete case. One sided and two-sided statistical tests are derived as well as symmetrized estimators. Almost sure rates of convergence and asymptotic normality theorem are obtained in the general case, and next particularized for the Renyi and Tsallis families and for the Kullback-Leibler measure as well. Our theorical results are validated by …
This note considers the problem of statistical inference of the parameters of the input process to a queue from periodic workload observations. The main focus is the open problem of constructing statistically efficient estimators for a given observation scheme, in the sense of minimizing the asymptotic variance of the estimation error.
We investigate the statistical complexity of estimating the parameters of a discrete-state Markov chain kernel from a single long sequence of state observations. In the finite case, we characterize (modulo logarithmic factors) the minimax sample complexity of estimation with respect to the operator infinity norm, while in the countably infinite case, we analyze the problem with respect to a natural entry-wise norm derived from total variation. We show that in both cases, the sample complexity is governed by the mixing properties of the unknown chain, for which, in the finite-state case, there …
We develop here several goodness-of-fit tests for testing the k-monotonicity of a discrete density, based on the empirical distribution of the observations. Our tests are non-parametric, easy to implement and are proved to be asymptotically of the desired level and consistent. We propose an estimator of the degree of k-monotonicity of the distribution based on the non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests. We apply our work to the estimation of the total number of classes in a population. A large simulation study allows to assess the performances of our procedures.
We study the minimax estimation of $α$-divergences between discrete distributions for integer $α\ge 1$, which include the Kullback--Leibler divergence and the $χ^2$-divergences as special examples. Dropping the usual theoretical tricks to acquire independence, we construct the first minimax rate-optimal estimator which does not require any Poissonization, sample splitting, or explicit construction of approximating polynomials. The estimator uses a hybrid approach which solves a problem-independent linear program based on moment matching in the non-smooth regime, and applies a problem-dependent…
This paper addresses an estimation problem of an additive functional of $ϕ$, which is defined as $θ(P;ϕ)=\sum_{i=1}^kϕ(p_i)$, given $n$ i.i.d. random samples drawn from a discrete distribution $P=(p_1,...,p_k)$ with alphabet size $k$. We have revealed in the previous paper that the minimax optimal rate of this problem is characterized by the divergence speed of the fourth derivative of $ϕ$ in a range of fast divergence speed. In this paper, we prove this fact for a more general range of the divergence speed. As a result, we show the minimax optimal rate of the additive functional estimation fo…
Estimating location is a central problem in functional data analysis, yet most current estimation procedures either unrealistically assume completely observed trajectories or lack robustness with respect to the many kinds of anomalies one can encounter in the functional setting. To remedy these deficiencies we introduce the first class of optimal robust location estimators based on discretely sampled functional data. The proposed method is based on M-type smoothing spline estimation with repeated measurements and is suitable for both commonly and independently observed trajectories that are su…
We consider the estimation of dynamic discrete choice models in a semiparametric setting, in which the per-period utility functions are known up to a finite number of parameters, but the distribution of utility shocks is left unspecified. This semiparametric setup differs from most of the existing identification and estimation literature for dynamic discrete choice mod- els. To show identification we derive and exploit a new Bellman-like recursive representation for the unknown quantile function of the utility shocks. Our estimators are straightforward to compute; some are simple and require n…
Google（谷歌）；University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
The collection and analysis of user data drives improvements in the app and web ecosystems, but comes with risks to privacy. This paper examines discrete distribution estimation under local privacy, a setting wherein service providers can learn the distribution of a categorical statistic of interest without collecting the underlying data. We present new mechanisms, including hashed K-ary Randomized Response (KRR), that empirically meet or exceed the utility of existing mechanisms at all privacy levels. New theoretical results demonstrate the order-optimality of KRR and the existing RAPPOR mech…
We present an approach to deep estimation of discrete conditional probability distributions. Such models have several applications, including generative modeling of audio, image, and video data. Our approach combines two main techniques: dyadic partitioning and graph-based smoothing of the discrete space. By recursively decomposing each dimension into a series of binary splits and smoothing over the resulting distribution using graph-based trend filtering, we impose a strict structure to the model and achieve much higher sample efficiency. We demonstrate the advantages of our model through a s…
We study asymptotic properties of some (essentially conditional least squares) parameter estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on discrete time observations derived from conditional least squares estimators of some modified parameters.
We consider parametric estimation for ergodic diffusion processes with noisy sampled data based on the hybrid method, that is, the multi-step estimation with the initial Bayes type estimators. In order to select proper initial values for optimisation of the quasi likelihood function of ergodic diffusion processes with noisy observations, we construct the initial Bayes type estimator based on the local means of the noisy observations. The asymptotic properties of the initial Bayes type estimators and the hybrid multi-step estimators with the initial Bayes type estimators are shown, and a concre…
In this article, a discrete analogue of continuous Teissier distribution is presented. Its several important distributional characteristics have been derived. The estimation of the unknown parameter has been done using the method of maximum likelihood and the method of moment. Two real data applications have been presented to show the applicability of the proposed model.
In this paper, we construct a sequence of discrete time stochastic processes that converges in probability and in the Skorokhod metric to a COGARCH(p,q) model. The result is useful for the estimation of the continuous model defined for irregularly spaced time series data. The estimation procedure is based on the maximization of a pseudo log-likelihood function and is implemented in the yuima package.
We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we derive lower bounds on the estimation rates in the total variation distance. Next, we consider a nonparametric mixture of normals model that uses continuous latent variables for the discrete part of the observations. We show that the posterior in this model contracts at rates that are equal to the derived lower bounds up to a log factor. Thus, Bayesian mixture o…
Fields like public health, public policy, and social science often want to quantify the degree of dependence between variables whose relationships take on unknown functional forms. Typically, in fact, researchers in these fields are attempting to evaluate causal theories, and so want to quantify dependence after conditioning on other variables that might explain, mediate or confound causal relations. One reason conditional mutual information is not more widely used for these tasks is the lack of estimators which can handle combinations of continuous and discrete random variables, common in app…
We consider a problem of parameter estimation for the state space model described by linear stochastic differential equations. We assume that an unobservable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process drives another observable process by the linear stochastic differential equation, and these two processes depend on some unknown parameters. We construct the quasi-likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the unknown parameters and show asymptotic properties of the estimator.
In various practical situations, we encounter data from stochastic processes which can be efficiently modelled by an appropriate parametric model for subsequent statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the most common estimation and inference methods based on the maximum likelihood (ML) principle are susceptible to minor deviations from assumed model or data contamination due to their well known lack of robustness. Since the alternative non-parametric procedures often lose significant efficiency, in this paper, we develop a robust parameter estimation procedure for discretely observed data from a …
We propose two least-squares estimators of a discrete probability under the constraint of k-monotony and study their statistical properties. We give a characterization of these estimators based on the decomposition on a spline basis of k-monotone sequences. We develop an algorithm derived from the Support Reduction Algorithm and we finally present a simulation study to illustrate their properties.
In this article we consider the nonparametric robust estimation problem for regression models in continuous time with semi-Markov noises observed in discrete time moments. An adaptive model selection procedure is proposed. A sharp non-asymptotic oracle inequality for the robust risks is obtained. We obtain sufficient conditions on the frequency observations under which the robust efficiency is shown. It turns out that for the semi-Markov models the robust minimax convergence rate may be faster or slower than the classical one.
In this paper, we give a AR$(1)$ type of characterization covering all multivariate strictly stationary processes indexed by the set of integers. Consequently, we derive continuous time algebraic Riccati equations for the parameter matrix of the characterization providing us with a natural way to define the corresponding estimator under the assumption of square integrability. In addition, we show that the estimator inherits consistency from autocovariances of the stationary process and furthermore, the limiting distribution is given by a linear function of the limiting distribution of the auto…
A truncated sequential procedure is constructed for estimating the drift coefficient at a given state point based on discrete data of ergodic diffusion process. A nonasymptotic upper bound is obtained for a pointwise absolute error risk. The optimal convergence rate and a sharp constant in the bounds are found for the asymptotic pointwise minimax risk. As a consequence, the efficiency is obtained of the proposed sequential procedure.
In environmental applications of extreme value statistics, the underlying stochastic process is often modeled either as a max-stable process in continuous time/space or as a process in the domain of attraction of such a max-stable process. In practice, however, the processes are typically only observed at discrete points and one has to resort to interpolation to fill in the gaps. We discuss the influence of such an interpolation on estimators of marginal parameters as well as estimators of the exponent measure. In particular, natural conditions on the fineness of the observational scheme are d…
