In line of the intermediate-term monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the world largest earthquakes the seismic dynamics of the Earth's lithosphere is analysed as a single whole, which is the ultimate scale of the complex hierarchical non-linear system. The present study demonstrates that the lithosphere does behave, at least in intermediate-term scale, as non-linear dynamic system that reveals classical symptoms of instability at the approach of catastrophe, i.e., mega-earthquake. These are: (i) transformation of magnitude distribution, (ii) spatial redistribution of seismic activity, (iii) rise and acceleration of activity, (iv) change of dependencies across magnitudes of different types, and other patterns of collective behaviour. The observed global scale seismic behaviour implies the state of criticality of the Earth lithosphere in the last decade.
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale $t_M$ increases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To distinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity, $T_1$, based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. $T_1$ also changes strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted …
Upon employing the analysis in a new time domain, termed natural time, it has been recently demonstrated that a remarkable change of seismicity emerges before major mainshocks in California. What constitutes this change is that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a clearly detectable minimum. This is identified by using a natural time window sliding event by event through the time series of the earthquakes in a wide area and comprising a number of events that would occur on the average within a few months or so. Here, we suggest a method to estimate the epicentral are…
In this work the data of the earthquake catalog of the NOAA, National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) are processed in terms of global seismic energy release. The determined Global Cumulative Seismic Energy Release (GCSER) graph as a function of time, is analyzed in the magnitude domain (discrete energy windows). Characteristic components of the analyzed graph are: its accelerated deformation character observed for energy windows lower than the background seismicity (M = 7.0 - 7.5), its lock state that started on 1923 and long seismic quiescence periods that preceded recent mega - earthquakes. …
This paper describes the use of the idea of natural time to propose a new method for characterizing the seismic risk to the world's major cities at risk of earthquakes. Rather than focus on forecasting, which is the computation of probabilities of future events, we define the term seismic nowcasting, which is the computation of the current state of seismic hazard in a defined geographic region.
Dynamic restrengthening and fault heterogeneity explain megathrust earthquake complexity
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所地球物理与行星物理中心）
The Tohoku EQ (11th of March, 2011, M = 9.0) in Japan falsified the proposed EQ magnitude range (M = 7.0 - 8.5) of the same seismogenic regional area that had been determined by the compiled hazard maps, study of historical data, or other probabilistic methods while a larger magnitude (M > 9.0) had been proposed for all subduction zones. The observed discrepancy between the proposed EQ magnitude range and the actual one of the Tohoku EQ is studied in this work in terms of the cumulative seismic energy release of the study area and by the use of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM…
The roughness of the subduction interface is thought to influence seismogenic behavior in subduction zones, but a detailed understanding of how such roughness affects the state of stress along the subduction megathrust is still debated. Here, we use seismotectonic analogue models to investigate the effect of subduction interface roughness on seismicity in subduction zones. We compared analogue earthquake source parameters and slip distributions for two roughness endmembers. Models characterized by a very rough interface have lower interface frictional strength and lower interseismic coupling t…
We demonstrate the efficacy of a Bayesian statistical inversion framework for reconstructing the likely characteristics of large pre-instrumentation earthquakes from historical records of tsunami observations. Our framework is designed and implemented for the estimation of the location and magnitude of seismic events from anecdotal accounts of tsunamis including shoreline wave arrival times, heights, and inundation lengths over a variety of spatially separated observation locations. As an initial test case we use our framework to reconstruct the great 1852 earthquake and tsunami of eastern Ind…
Recovery of low-magnitude seismic events before the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka megathrust earthquake using waveform cross-correlation enhanced by the addition of stochastic noise
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake sequence in the Tohoku area. Starting in 1999 we have carried out long- and short-term forecasts for Japan and the surrounding areas using the GCMT catalog. The forecasts predict the earthquake rate per area, time, magnitude unit and earthquake focal mechanisms. Long-term forecasts indicate that the repeat time for the m9 earthquake in the Tohoku area is of the ord…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events. We show that pattern recognition techniques, which are designed in a formal and testable way, may provide significant space-time constraints about impending strong earthquakes. This information, when combined with physically sound methods for ground shaking computation, like the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), may produce effectively preventive seismic ha…
After the submission of the paper, three strong earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0-units occurred on October 17 and October 20, 2005, with epicenters in the Aegean Sea, at a distance {\em only} 100km from MYT station at which the intense signals $M_1$ to $M_4$ -analyzed in the main text- have been recorded. This confirms experimentally the proposed criterion we used for the classification of these signals as Seismic Electric Signals (SES). Moreover, we show that, if we follow the procedure described in [P.A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis, H. K. Tanaka and E. S. Skordas {\it Phys. Rev. E} {\bf 72},…
Earthquakes are measured using well defined seismic parameters such as seismic moment (Mo), moment magnitude (Mw), and released elastic energy(E). How this tremendous amount of energy is accumulated silently deep inside the earth's crust? The most obvious question in seismic research remains unanswered. We found an inherent and intriguing connection between the released energy in an earthquake and electrochemical potential induced in an ultra-thin metal oxide electrode immersed in an aqueous pH solution, which leads us to understand the origin of the energy accumulation process in an earthquak…
Seismic quiescence and activation prior to the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake
University of Shizuoka（静冈大学）；Shizuoka University（静冈大学）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）；Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术机构）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Santa Fe Institute（圣塔菲研究所）
TRACE: A Multi-Agent System for Autonomous Physical Reasoning for Seismology
School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学学院）；Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University（哈佛大学地球与行星科学系）；Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration（中国地震局地震预报研究所）
Prediction of the Kamchatka July 29, 2025, earthquake by the evolution of low-magnitude seismicity recovered using waveform cross-correlation at IMS seismic arrays
Effects of stochastic and natural seismic noise on the performance of waveform cross-correlation used to recover low-magnitude seismicity prior to the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka earthquake
We inquire the statistical nature and dynamics of shallow and deep seismogenesis along major plate margins of the NW Circum-Pacific Belt, by examining whether earthquakes are generated by Poisson processes and are independent (uncorrelated), or by Complex processes and are dependent (correlated). Analysis is based of Non Extensive Statistical Physics and the complete and homogeneous catalogue of the Japan Meteorological Agency for the period 2002-2016.5. Emphasis is given to background seismicity recovered by removing aftershocks with stochastic declustering. Long-term correlation and long-ran…
