利用卫星和地面测量估算和减少氮氧化合物排放的空间发布的不确定性
The use of satellite and ground based measurements for estimating and reducing uncertainties in the spatial distribution of emissions of nitrogen oxides
摘要：
我们探索的可能性，提高氮氧化物排放的空间结构中采用的大陆尺度化学传输模式（CTM）通过使用卫星测量的二氧化氮和地面观测近地表臭氧。在这项研究中，我们结合了对流层NO2柱来自SCIAMACHY测量，从EMEP臭氧监测网的数据和计算与CHIMERE CTM在一个先进的逆向建模方案的框架。研究中使用的所有数据都是2003年6月至8月期间的数据。我们的反演方案的主要特点是，与更常见的反演建模方法相比，在输入数据中的不确定性的大小没有明确的预定义，而是一致地估计作为反演结果的后验排放。对流层NO2柱用于拟合模式排放参数的空间发布，而臭氧观测仅用于估计先验排放中不确定性的平均水平。我们使用我们的方法，以估计和减少不确定性的网格（分辨率为1度）氮氧化物排放数据为欧洲，中东和北非。它被发现，在标准版本的CHIMERE中使用的先验排放估计可能是有偏见的，在几个地区。平均而言，总NOx排放量的不确定性估计为在欧洲的几何标准差方面约为1.7，在欧洲以外约为2.1。修正后的排放量估计提供了更好的协议的模拟结果与观测NO2柱和近地面的臭氧浓度。
英文摘要：
We explore possibilities of improving the spatial structure of NOx emissions employed in a continental scale chemistry transport model (CTM) by using satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and ground-based observations of near surface ozone. In this study, we combine the tropospheric NO2 columns derived from SCIAMACHY measurements, the data from the EMEP ozone-monitoring network and the calculations performed with the CHIMERE CTM in the framework of an advanced inverse modelling scheme. All data used in the study correspond to the period of June-August 2003. The main distinctive feature of our inversion scheme is that, in contrast to more common inverse modelling approaches, the magnitudes of uncertainties in the input data are not explicitly predefined but rather estimated consistently with the a posteriori emissions as a result of the inversion. While the tropospheric NO2 columns are used for fitting the spatial distribution of the emission parameters of the model, the ozone observations are only used to estimate the averaged levels of uncertainties in a priori emissions. We use our method in order to estimate and to reduce uncertainties in the gridded (with the resolution of 1 degree) NOx emission data for Europe, Middle East and Northern Africa. It is found that the a priori emission estimates used in the standard version of CHIMERE are probably biased in several regions. On average, the uncertainties in total NOx emissions are estimated to be about 1.7 in terms of the geometric standard deviation in Europe and about 2.1 outside of Europe. The corrected emission estimates provide better agreement of the modelled results with observations for both NO2 columns and near surface concentrations of ozone.
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