对van Dam等人的“哺乳动物更替的长期天文强迫”的评论，自然443：687-691
Comment on "Long-period astronomical forcing of mammal turnover" by van Dam et al., Nature 443:687-691
摘要：
Van Dam等人（2006年）声称西班牙啮齿动物谱系记录中的周转周期为240万至250万和100万。然而，记录方差谱，这是在同上中缺失的，显示了不同的可靠性和原始数据（空白和未改变的）的多次改变（同上），不自然地将250万和100万年的噪声周期提高到99%置信水平，同时未能识别第三个所谓的99%显著噪声周期，即5.3 var%时的550万年。因此，至少有一个声称的周期（100万年）是对一个相对较强的噪声周期（55万年）的简单调制（同上）。所有所谓的99%有效周期仅达到5至6%的无功水平，这几乎无法与噪声区分开来：这些周期的保真度比通常的信噪比分离标记12.0低1至2个数量级。值得注意的是，至少有十个噪声周期被提升到95%的置信水平，大约五个噪声周期也接近95%的置信水平。即使是像同上所做的那样，仅对4%的数据进行零填充，显著抑制（因此未报告）最强的99%显著期，7.28百万年，7.5 var%。因此，声称的周期是由于一些中介的强噪声反射。随着周期性灾变的说法开始频繁出现在科学期刊上，需要对固有间隙长记录的谱分析和主要由可靠性显著不一致的自然数据组成的记录的编辑政策进行修订。
英文摘要：
Van Dam et al. (2006) claimed 2.4 to 2.5 and 1.0 Myr turnover cycles in a Spanish rodent lineages record. However, the record variance spectrum, which is missing in ibid., shows that the varying reliability and multiple alterations of raw (gapped and unaltered) data by ibid. unnaturally boosted the 2.5 and 1.0 Myr noise cycles to the 99% confidence level, while failing to recognize a third such so called 99% significant noise period, of 0.55 Myr at 5.3 var%. Thus at least one claimed period (of 1.0 Myr) is a simple modulation of a relatively stronger noise cycle (of 0.55 Myr) overlooked by ibid. All so called 99% significant periods reach mere 5 to 6% var levels which can be hardly distinguished from noise: those periods fidelity is at staggering 1 to 2 orders of magnitude below the usual signal to noise separation marker at 12.0. Remarkably, at least ten noise periods got boosted to 95% confidence level, and some five noise periods to near 95% confidence level, as well. Even the zero padding of just 4% of data, as done by ibid., significantly suppresses (hence unreported) the strongest 99% significant period, of 7.28 Myr at 7.5 var%. Therefore, the periods claimed are due to strong noise reflection of some intermediary. As hand waving cyclic cataclysm claims start to frequent scientific journals, revision of editorial policies is called for on spectral analyses of inherently gapped long records, and of records composed mostly of natural data of significantly inconsistent reliability.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
