非泊松活动模式对传播过程的影响
Impact of non-Poisson activity patterns on spreading processes
摘要：
阻止计算机或生物病毒爆发需要详细了解易感者和受感染者之间相互作用的时间。虽然目前的传播模型假设用户在时间上均匀交互，遵循泊松过程，但最近的一系列测量表明，接触时间分布是重尾的，对应于时间上不均匀的突发接触过程。在这里，我们表明，非泊松性质的接触动力学的流行率衰减时间显着大于预测的标准泊松过程为基础的模型。我们的预测与详细的时间分辨的计算机病毒的流行数据，其中，根据病毒公告，显示衰减时间接近一年，与一天的衰减预测的标准泊松过程为基础的模型相反。
英文摘要：
Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time, following a Poisson process, a series of recent measurements indicate that the inter-contact time distribution is heavy tailed, corresponding to a temporally inhomogeneous bursty contact process. Here we show that the non-Poisson nature of the contact dynamics results in prevalence decay times significantly larger than predicted by the standard Poisson process based models. Our predictions are in agreement with the detailed time resolved prevalence data of computer viruses, which, according to virus bulletins, show a decay time close to a year, in contrast with the one day decay predicted by the standard Poisson process based models.
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