投票过程的可靠性：墨西哥案例
On the reliability of voting processes: the Mexican case
摘要：
使用统计物理学的现有工具分析选票分布越来越受到关注。虽然考虑物理学研究的数据受到仔细理解的误差来源，这样的分析几乎没有在投票过程的研究。作为一种方法来测试在选举过程中的可靠性，我们选择调查2006年7月在墨西哥的总统选举。我们使用出现在Prep中的记录，Prep是一个一旦捕获就提供选举结果的程序。为了对比结果，我们使用了国会选举数据集和2000年7月的总统选举记录。我们证明了相关性的存在，在选票的百分比，我们提供的证据，在总统的情况下奇怪的结果的PRI的强大影响力。分析了所有选举的数据集中的误差分布，没有发现大的偏差。也就是说，即使在所有情况下误差之和约为45%，它们的全局行为也是相似的。这一结果支持了2006年7月总统选举没有大规模舞弊的论点。在所有情况下，所有政党的选票都得到了分配。得票少的政党和候选人、无效选票和未登记的候选人遵循幂律分布，公司党遵循雏菊模型分布。拥有许多选票的政党和候选人表现出喜忧参半的行为。
英文摘要：
Analysis of vote distributions using current tools from statistical physics is of increasing interest. While data considered for physics studies are subject to a careful understanding of error sources, such analysis are almost absent in studies of voting process. As a way to test reliability in electoral processes we choose to investigate the July 2006 presidential election in Mexico. We use records which appeared in the Programa de Resultados Preliminares, PREP, the program which offers electoral results as soon as they are captured. In order to contrast the results we used the congressional election data-set and the July 2000 presidential record. We demonstrate the existence of correlations in the percentage of votes and, we offer evidence of the strong influence of the PRI in the curious results in the presidential case. Distributions of errors in the data-sets are analyzed for all the elections and no large deviations were found. That is, even when the sum of errors is around 45% in all cases, their global behavior is similar. This result gives support to the thesis of no large fraud for the July 2006 presidential election. Distribution of votes in all cases is obtained for all the parties. Parties and candidates with few votes, annulled votes and non-registered candidates follow a power law distribution, and the corporate party follows a daisy model distribution. Parties and candidates with many votes show a mixed behavior.
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