竞争的等价性和可预测性
Parity and Predictability of Competitions
摘要：
我们提出了一个广泛的统计分析的结果，所有的体育比赛在五个主要的体育联赛在英国和美国。我们通过赛季末排名数据中获胜分数的方差来表征球队之间的平价，并通过比赛结果数据中的干扰频率来量化比赛的可预测性。我们引入了一个新的数学模型，在该模型中，处于劣势的球队以固定的爆冷概率获胜。该模型定量地将球队之间的势均力敌与比赛的可预测性联系起来，并且可以用于从排名数据中估计爆冷频率。
英文摘要：
We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from season-end standings data and quantify the predictability of games by the frequency of upsets from game results data. We introduce a novel mathematical model in which the underdog team wins with a fixed upset probability. This model quantitatively relates the parity among teams with the predictability of the games, and it can be used to estimate the upset frequency from standings data.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
