日本政府对国内农业市场的干预分析
Analysis of a Japan government intervention on the domestic agriculture market
摘要：
我们研究了一个经济系统，其中一个大的代理人-日本政府改变了许多较小的代理人-日本农业生产者的环境，通过间接调节农产品的价格。这种干预的原因是，在1974年石油危机之前，日本农产品价格出现了不规则的大幅度变化。通过相关分析，结合奇异谱分析（SSA）、主成分分析（PCA）和时滞相空间构造（TDPSC），研究了日本政府措施对国内仔猪价格和产量的影响。结果表明，政府管制政策是成功的，并导致了仔猪价格的非平稳性降低和可预测性增强;价格和生产周期的耦合;仔猪价格围绕年平均价格波动的动态决定性增强。调查的情况下是一个例子，证实了论文，一个大的代理人可以改变一个显着的方式在复杂的（经济或金融）系统的小代理人的环境，这可能是他们的生存或灭绝的关键。
英文摘要：
We investigate an economic system in which one large agent - the Japan government changes the environment of numerous smaller agents - the Japan agriculture producers by indirect regulation of prices of agriculture goods. The reason for this intervention was that before the oil crisis in 1974 Japan agriculture production prices exhibited irregular and large amplitude changes. By means of analysis of correlations and a combination of singular spectrum analysis (SSA), principal component analysis (PCA), and time delay phase space construction (TDPSC) we study the influence of the government measures on the domestic piglet prices and production in Japan. We show that the government regulation politics was successful and leaded (i) to a decrease of the nonstationarities and to increase of predictability of the piglet price; (ii) to a coupling of the price and production cycles; (iii) to increase of determinism of the dynamics of the fluctuations of piglet price around the year average price. The investigated case is an example confirming the thesis that a large agent can change in a significant way the environment of the small agents in complex (economic or financial) systems which can be crucial for their survival or extinction.
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