基于性接触网络的HIV/AIDS流行病与人口结构的相互作用
Interplay between HIV/AIDS Epidemics and Demographic Structures Based on Sexual Contact Networks
摘要：
在这篇文章中，我们提出了一个网络传播模型的艾滋病病毒，其中每个人表示的一个节点的传播网络和边缘是个人之间的连接，沿感染可能会蔓延。每个人的性活动，以其程度来衡量，不是均匀的，而是服从幂律分布。由于活动的异质性，感染可以持续存在于一个非常低的患病率，这已经在实际数据中观察到，但不能用以前的模型与均匀混合假设说明。此外，该模型显示了一个清晰的分层传播的画面：在早期阶段，感染粘附到这些高危人群，然后，向低风险人群扩散。预测结果表明，不同国家的流行病发展大致可分为3种模式，而一个国家的流行病发展模式主要取决于性伴侣的平均性活动和传播概率。在大多数情况下，艾滋病毒流行病对人口结构的影响很小。然而，对于一些极端的国家，如博茨瓦纳，性活跃的人数可以被艾滋病压低到近一半。
英文摘要：
In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread. The sexual activity of each individual, measured by its degree, is not homogeneous but obeys a power-law distribution. Due to the heterogeneity of activity, the infection can persistently exist at a very low prevalence, which has been observed in real data but can not be illuminated by previous models with homogeneous mixing hypothesis. Furthermore, the model displays a clear picture of hierarchical spread: In the early stage the infection is adhered to these high-risk persons, and then, diffuses toward low-risk population. The prediction results show that the development of epidemics can be roughly categorized into three patterns for different countries, and the pattern of a given country is mainly determined by the average sex-activity and transmission probability per sexual partner. In most cases, the effect of HIV epidemics on demographic structure is very small. However, for some extremely countries, like Botswana, the number of sex-active people can be depressed to nearly a half by AIDS.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
