道路交通动态的随机性：高分辨率高速公路交通记录的综合线性和非线性时间序列分析
Stochasticity of Road Traffic Dynamics: Comprehensive Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis on High Resolution Freeway Traffic Records
摘要：
研究了北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚高速公路交通量时间序列的动力学特性。文章表明，道路交通动力学是一个持久的随机过程，两个不动点代表自由流（非拥挤）和拥挤的状态制度。这些交通状态具有不同的统计特性，包括等待时间分布、速度分布和自相关性。速度记录的对数差呈非正态分布，具有明显的曲线特征。此外，线性和非线性相平面为基础的分析方法产生任何决定论或确定性的混乱参与交通动态短于昼夜时间尺度上的证据。几个Hurst指数估计表明自由流状态的长期依赖性。最后，我们的结果是不符合典型的启发式指纹的自组织临界性。我们建议更简单的假设之间的自由流和拥挤的交通的非关键相变。
英文摘要：
The dynamical properties of road traffic time series from North-Rhine Westphalian motorways are investigated. The article shows that road traffic dynamics is well described as a persistent stochastic process with two fixed points representing the freeflow (non-congested) and the congested state regime. These traffic states have different statistical properties, with respect to waiting time distribution, velocity distribution and autocorrelation. Logdifferences of velocity records reveal non-normal, obviously leptocurtic distribution. Further, linear and nonlinear phase-plane based analysis methods yield no evidence for any determinism or deterministic chaos to be involved in traffic dynamics on shorter than diurnal time scales. Several Hurst-exponent estimators indicate long-range dependence for the free flow state. Finally, our results are not in accordance to the typical heuristic fingerprints of self-organized criticality. We suggest the more simplistic assumption of a non-critical phase transition between freeflow and congested traffic.
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