费米贝叶斯定理
The Fermi's Bayes Theorem
摘要：
令人好奇的是，恩里科·费米知道如何将概率推理建立在贝叶斯定理的基础上，而且一些对物理学家有影响的统计学笔记来自作者在其他地方（但从未在这些笔记中）称之为{ \it费米贝叶斯定理}。这个事实很奇怪，因为绝大多数活着的物理学家，在上个世纪下半叶接受教育-一种统计推理的中年-在他们的研究中从未听说过贝叶斯定理，尽管他们一直在使用一种直观的推理，在精神上相当贝叶斯。本文基于杰伊·奥里尔的回忆和笔记以及高斯的“Theoria motus corporum coelestium”，奥里尔记得这是费米贝叶斯推理的来源。
英文摘要：
It is curious to learn that Enrico Fermi knew how to base probabilistic inference on Bayes theorem, and that some influential notes on statistics for physicists stem from what the author calls elsewhere, but never in these notes, {\it the Bayes Theorem of Fermi}. The fact is curious because the large majority of living physicists, educated in the second half of last century -- a kind of middle age in the statistical reasoning -- never heard of Bayes theorem during their studies, though they have been constantly using an intuitive reasoning quite Bayesian in spirit. This paper is based on recollections and notes by Jay Orear and on Gauss' ``Theoria motus corporum coelestium'', being the {\it Princeps mathematicorum} remembered by Orear as source of Fermi's Bayesian reasoning.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
