共识的形成：开车时使用手机的案例
Consensus formation: The case of using cell phones while driving
摘要：
为了描述共识形成的社会现象，已经提出了几个模型（包括广泛使用的Sznajd模型）。本文件的目的是补充模拟基于这些模型与“现实世界的模拟”;它认为可以被视为一个理想的实验室分析共识的形成，即授权或禁止使用手机，而驾驶的情况。这是一个方便的实验室，原因有几个：（i）所有工业化国家都以类似的方式提出了这个问题，这种情况有利于通过提供{ \it一组观察结果}（而不是例如在选举中产生的单一观察结果）进行比较分析。(ii)在这种情况下，我们碰巧知道一个“理性”代理人应该遵循的规则。(iii)因为这个问题是一个生死攸关的问题，这个现象可以被认为是相对于各种内源性或外源性噪声源相当强大的。(iv)有关数据可在互联网和报纸数据库中查阅。\qL我们的观察强烈表明，在大多数共识形成模拟中存在一个缺失变量。在结论中，本文呼吁大规模的努力，以确定，记录和分析其他现实世界的共识形成的情况。
英文摘要：
Several models (including the widely used Sznajd model) have been proposed in order to describe the social phenomenon of consensus formation. The objective of the present paper is to supplement the simulations based on these models with a ``real world simulation''; it considers a situation which can be considered as an ideal laboratory for analyzing consensus formation, namely the authorization or prohibition of using cell phones while driving. This is a convenient laboratory for several reasons (i) The issue was raised in similar terms in all industrialized countries, a circumstance that facilitates comparative analysis by providing a {\it set of observations} (as opposed to single observations generated, for instance, in election contests). (ii) This is a situation where we happen to know the rule a ``rational'' agent should follow. (iii) Because the issue is a matter of life and death, the phenomenon can be considered as fairly robust with respect to various, endogenous or exogenous, sources of noise. (iv) The relevant data are available on the Internet and in newspaper data bases. \qL Our observations strongly suggest that there is a missing variable in most consensus formation simulations. In its conclusion, the paper calls for a large scale effort for identifying, documenting and analyzing other real-world cases of consensus formation.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
