本文研究了M $ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $ τ_0 $. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time $ \hat τ以上地震复发时间的统计（τ_0）$ between two events increases monotonically with $ τ_0 PDMATHAMQ τ_0 PDMATHAMR PDMATHAMS τ，PDMATHAMO τ（τ_0）$ is smaller than $ \ov τ $, while for $ τ_0> \ov τ $, $ \hat τ（τ_0）$ is greater than $ \ov τ $. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on $ τ_0 $. The larger $ τ_0$越大，则平均剩余时间越大。在任何地震预报中，都应考虑上述特征。
英文摘要：
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $τ_0$. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time $\hat τ(τ_0)$ between two events increases monotonically with $τ_0$. For $τ_0$ well below the average recurrence time $\ovτ, \hatτ(τ_0)$ is smaller than $\ovτ$, while for $τ_0>\ovτ$, $\hatτ(τ_0)$ is greater than $\ovτ$. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on $τ_0$. The larger $τ_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.
Non-randomness of Japan megaquakes implied by stress recovery and accumulation
University of Shizuoka（静冈大学）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校物理与天文系）；Center for Integrated Research and Education of Natural Hazards, Shizuoka University（静冈大学自然灾害综合研究教育研究中心）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）；Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术厅横滨地球科学研究所）
Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this final size can be predicted. Here we introduce a probabilistic view of rupture evolution - how likely is the event to become large - allowing for a clear and well-founded answer with implications for earthquake physics and early warning. We apply our approach to real time magnitude estimation based on either moment rate functions or broadband teleseismic P ar…
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；GD Goenka University（GD戈恩卡大学）
Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area for many decades, where the future occurrence of this highly uncertain calamity is predicted. In this paper, several parametric and non-parametric features were calculated, where the non-parametric features were calculated using the parametric features. $8$ seismic features were calculated using Gutenberg-Richter law, the total recurrence, and the seismic energy release. Additionally, criterions such as Maximum Relevance and Maximum Redundancy were applied to choose the pertinent features. These features along with others were used as …
Time-history deformation analyses of upstream-raised tailings dams use seismic records as input data. Such records must be representative of the in-situ seismicity in terms of a wide range of intensity measures (IMs) including peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity (AI), cumulative absolute velocity (CAV), source-to-site distance, duration, among others. No single IM is a sufficient descriptor of a given seismic demand (e.g. crest settlement) because different records, all of them compliant with any IM, can produce a very wide range of results from insignificant damage to global failu…
