热盐环流稳定性：盒子模式研究.第1部分：非耦合模式
Thermohaline circulation stability: a box model study - Part I: uncoupled model
摘要：
本文对热盐环流（THC）的Rooth南北半球三箱非耦合模式的稳定性进行了深入的分析。该模式由一个北高纬箱、一个热带箱和一个南高纬箱组成，分别对应于北、热带和南大西洋。温度变量采用恢复边界条件，盐度变量采用通量边界条件。我们研究如何THC的强度变化时，系统经历强迫是类似于全球变暖的条件下，通过施加到平衡态扰动的水分和热量通量到三个盒子。在每一类实验中，我们确定，使用适当定义的度量，边界划分的强迫场景，导致系统的平衡特征的THC模式类似于目前的，从那些驱动系统的平衡与反向THC。进入北部高纬箱的水汽通量的快速增加比缓慢增加更有效地导致THC的崩溃，而进入南部高纬箱的水汽通量的增加强烈地抑制了THC的崩溃，并可以防止它，在北半球缓慢增加的情况下。北半球热通量的高速率增加比低速率增加更有效地使系统不稳定，而南半球热通量的增加往往使系统稳定。
英文摘要：
A thorough analysis of the stability of the uncoupled Rooth interhemispheric 3-box model of thermohaline circulation (THC) is presented. The model consists of a northern high latitudes box, a tropical box, and a southern high latitudes box, which respectively correspond to the northern, tropical and southern Atlantic ocean. We adopt restoring boundary conditions for the temperature variables and flux boundary conditions for the salinity variables. We study how the strength of THC changes when the system undergoes forcings that are analogous to those of global warming conditions by applying to the equilibrium state perturbations to the moisture and heat fluxes into the three boxes. In each class of experiments, we determine, using suitably de- fined metrics, the boundary dividing the set of forcing scenarios that lead the system to equilibria characterized by a THC pattern similar to the present one, from those that drive the system to equilibria with a reversed THC. Fast increases in the moisture flux into the northern high-latitude box are more effective than slow increases in leading the THC to a breakdown, while the increases of moisture flux into the southern high-latitude box strongly inhibits the breakdown and can prevent it, in the case of slow increases in the Northern Hemisphere. High rates of heat flux increase in the North Hemisphere destabilize the system more effectively than low ones, and increases in the heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere tend to stabilize the system.
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