背景不确定性下的频率假设检验
Frequentist Hypothesis Testing with Background Uncertainty
摘要：
我们考虑在仅背景预测存在不确定性的情况下，信号加背景假设和仅背景假设的标准Neyman-Pearson假设检验。令人惊讶的是，这个问题并没有在最近的高能物理统计技术会议上得到解决，尽管它的置信区间等价物已经得到了解决。我们讨论的权力，类似的测试，覆盖率和排序规则的问题。所提出的方法相比，Tumins-Highland技术，泊松比的手段，和“剖面”的方法。
英文摘要：
We consider the standard Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test of a signal-plus-background hypothesis and background-only hypothesis in the presence of uncertainty on the background-only prediction. Surprisingly, this problem has not been addressed in the recent conferences on statistical techniques in high-energy physics -- although the its confidence-interval equivalent has been. We discuss the issues of power, similar tests, coverage, and ordering rules. The method presented is compared to the Cousins-Highland technique, the ratio of Poisson means, and ``profile'' method.
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