气候自然变率的普遍谱：对气候变化的影响
Universal Spectrum for Natural Variability of Climate: Implications for Climate Change
摘要：
从气候（数千公里-年）到湍流（毫米-秒），大气流动中明显不规则（不可预测）的时空波动表现出自相似性的普遍对称性。自相似性或尺度不变性意味着长距离的时空相关性，并表现在大气流动的分形几何空间模式伴随着逆幂律形式的时间波动的功率谱。长程时空相关性在自然界的动力系统中普遍存在，并被认为是自组织临界性的特征。标准气象学理论不能满意地解释观测到的自组织临界性。模拟和预测大气流动的数值模型易受确定性混沌的影响，并给出不切实际的解。确定性混沌是迭代计算中舍入误差增长的直接结果。有限精度计算的舍入误差在迭代计算的每一步平均加倍。在数值天气预报和气候模式中，舍入误差将传播到主流计算中，并给出不切实际的解，这些模式在长期数值积分方案中包含数千次迭代计算。最近发展的非确定性细胞动力系统模型的大气流动预测所观察到的自组织临界性作为内在的量子力学控制流动动力学。
英文摘要：
The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity. Self-similarity or scale invariance implies long-range spatiotemporal correlations and is manifested in atmospheric flows as the fractal geometry to spatial pattern concomitant with inverse power-law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations. Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures of self-organized criticality. Standard meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality. Numerical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are subject to deterministic chaos and give unrealistic solutions. Deterministic chaos is a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative computations. Round-off error of finite precision computations doubles on an average at each step of iterative computations. Round-off error will propagate to the mainstream computation and give unrealistic solutions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models which incorporate thousands of iterative computations in long-term numerical integration schemes. A recently developed non-deterministic cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows predicts the observed self-organized criticality as intrinsic to quantumlike mechanics governing flow dynamics.
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