arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv math/0703828math.OCmath.PRq-fin.CP
收藏

更改保费的最佳时机

Optimal Time to Change Premiums

Erhan Bayraktar, H. Vincent Poor

摘要:

索赔到达保险公司的过程是由一个复合泊松过程,其强度和/或跳跃大小分布的变化在一个不可观测的时间与已知的分布。保险公司的利益是尽快发现变化时间,以便重新评估保费的新公允价值,以保持其利润水平不变。这相当于强度和跳跃大小同时变化,但强度变化为具有已知分布的随机变量的问题。这个问题变成了一个马尔可夫充分统计量的最优停止问题。在这里,解决了这个问题的一个特殊情况下,到达率移动到两个可能的值之一,和马尔可夫充分统计量是二维的。

英文摘要:

The claim arrival process to an insurance company is modeled by a compound Poisson process whose intensity and/or jump size distribution changes at an unobservable time with a known distribution. It is in the insurance company's interest to detect the change time as soon as possible in order to re-evaluate a new fair value for premiums to keep its profit level the same. This is equivalent to a problem in which the intensity and the jump size change at the same time but the intensity changes to a random variable with a know distribution. This problem becomes an optimal stopping problem for a Markovian sufficient statistic. Here, a special case of this problem is solved, in which the rate of the arrivals moves up to one of two possible values, and the Markovian sufficient statistic is two-dimensional.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑